Is the money ever really lost?

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
denvermartinfarms
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby denvermartinfarms » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:47 pm

I agree with that thinking, I've went through those situations and went about it just like what he's saying. Also just like the stock market, you haven't lost anything until you sell them in bad times. if you can hang on and make it through without having to sell, you never lost anything, of course at a certain point calves can get big enough that you do have to sell regardless.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:47 pm

Bigfoot wrote:Just a conversation starter here, but does anyone else view the market this way?


Yes money can really be lost. How much money depends on your type of business, who your tax adviser is, and how many turns you make.

Traders and bankers like "sell buy marketing". Sell first -- then buy back the best deal in the same market that you sold in. It works in that they have by definition the cash to stay in business, and the bank' equity (but not the traders equity) is still there, AND the traders makes money on each inventory turn.

Beef producers who sell once or twice a year are different. They sell low or high AND do not buy back. So they just lost big $$$ this fall unless they had LRP. :( Sorry.

Share owners who panic and only sell out at the bottom are even worse off than producers. They often don't buy back for a long time - - and thus miss several years of rebound.

Trading skill and number of turns per year are more important than price, but price still matters. :nod: Question is which things can you control, and which risks can you reduce ???
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:08 pm

TexasBred wrote:It's like slowly bleeding to death. He's losing blood, just not all at one time. Next thing you know he'll sell and buy $20,000 and that will be all. Most times what he says is pretty much on the money but with this last bit price increase and him buying at an all time high he has lost...he just won't realize it until he liquidates.


Trad'in money.
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Stocker Steve

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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:12 pm

So if you are a trader or a stocker operator or feed lot owner, and the price of calves doubles, so that now you only have 50% utilization - - did you lose money?
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midTN_Brangusman
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby midTN_Brangusman » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:41 am

A great cattleman, which I'm sure you all have heard of, Mr. Gordon Hazard, has said that if you sell your big steer and buy your small replacement steer on the same market, your always going to make a profit no matter if the market is up or down. If you run your operation like this your profit will be nearly the same regardless where the market is since the spread between a 400# and a 800# steer doesn't vary a heck of a whole lot. So like stocker Steve has stated, those who sell on a low market and don't buy back are losing their butts! Mr. Hazard has a great book out that I would recommend to anyone in the cattle business, whether you have a stocker or a cow/calf operation, he has great insight and experience that we can all learn from.
Last edited by midTN_Brangusman on Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby talltimber » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:08 pm

The "never lose anything" sounds like a great pitch to potential investors.

I'll defer to Kenny's example for demonstration of what I understand real life to be like. You have to pay bills in all 20 yrs to make it in the business 20 yrs, looks to me like.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Brentp » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:06 pm

It is true in most markets that your investment will average out to zero or greater over a long time period. The problem encountered with buying and selling simultaneously (and most market strategies) is when the market swings down hard enough and fast enough to wipe out your working capital. $20,000 of cattle is always $20,000 of cattle but 10% return (or whatever) is still 10% either way.
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Supa Dexta
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Supa Dexta » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:31 am

CSM wrote:"I didn't loose anything, I didn't sale anything".
CSM



Sell.. The word is sell. Why do I always see the word sale used like this, on this board? Its peculiar.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Ojp6 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:25 pm

My grandpa bought and sold a pile of cattle in his day. His thing was to never lose your numbers regardless of the market. If he was going to have 4000 in the feedyard at the start of the year you could bet he would have 4000 head on feed at the end of the year +/- a few loads for tax purposes. He didn't try to hold the cattle forever when the market dropped and he didn't quit buying when they got high. If he was selling cattle at a loss he was buying the back the same week. He was very good at managing feed costs and buying cattle cheap compared to what the market was at the time. When he started feeding cattle he had 200 head all on borrowed money and 25 years after that he owned 6,000 head free and clear and had built two feedlots of his own.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Son of Butch » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:26 pm

Supa Dexta wrote:
CSM wrote:"I didn't loose anything, I didn't sale anything".
CSM

Sell.. The word is sell. Why do I always see the word sale used like this, on this board? Its peculiar.

:lol:
Sail... The word is sail. I didn't sail 'em cause the crick done dried up.
Lose...The word is lose. The cowboys are going to lose Sunday cause they been chasing too many loose women.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby TennesseeTuxedo » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:32 pm

Supa Dexta wrote:
CSM wrote:"I didn't loose anything, I didn't sale anything".
CSM



Sell.. The word is sell. Why do I always see the word sale used like this, on this board? Its peculiar.


One of my pet peeves as well Dexta.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Rafter S » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:38 pm

TennesseeTuxedo wrote:
Supa Dexta wrote:
CSM wrote:"I didn't loose anything, I didn't sale anything".
CSM



Sell.. The word is sell. Why do I always see the word sale used like this, on this board? Its peculiar.


One of my pet peeves as well Dexta.


I'm glad I'm not the only one. Typos, and using the wrong word, irritate me to no end.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby M.Magis » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:48 pm

Supa Dexta wrote:
CSM wrote:"I didn't loose anything, I didn't sale anything".
CSM



Sell.. The word is sell. Why do I always see the word sale used like this, on this board? Its peculiar.

It must be some sort of internet talk. I see it all over, not just here. Not sure why it bothers me so much, but it drives me nuts. For whatever reason, people think normal English no longer applies when online.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby Bigfoot » Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:51 pm

When I'm not sure how to spell something, I try to use another word I do know how to spell. Plus sell, and sale are confusing. Especially the last month. Calves are on sale.
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Re: Is the money ever really lost?

Postby TexasBred » Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:12 am

Stocker Steve wrote:So if you are a trader or a stocker operator or feed lot owner, and the price of calves doubles, so that now you only have 50% utilization - - did you lose money?


No but you haven't made any either.
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