Why Prices Are Down

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TennesseeTuxedo
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby TennesseeTuxedo » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Low blow to our friends in Canada.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby Bigfoot » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:08 pm

Personally, I think it's time that we took a minute, and actually analyzed the writing on the wall. We are just another industry that has put under by cheap imports. We won't bounce back. We won't have a come back. It's just gone. I live in a town, that's entire economy is based on manufacturing. I can name product after product that left here to never to return. We just met the same fate. The packer was makin a dollar, and we were makin a dime. They found somebody willing to perform the same task for a nickel.

We say it, and I guess it sounds cliche, but what many of us do is way of life. It's not what I do, it's what I am. I felt the same way about tobacco absolutely refused to raise one single stalk for the companies, and never will. I still miss it. I'm afraid cattle will go the same way for me. I hate to let anybody down, and not be optimistic, but I'm not optimistic at all. I've seen it too many times, on too many other products.

I truly am sorry to feel this way, and I wish for the younger generation that it wasn't happening. I sat my son down this evening and tried to explain to him. He has been under the full understanding for a while now, that the market has fallen. It's started to affect many of our spending practices. He didn't take it so well, that this might be something that we used to do. Much as I love it, I won't do it for nothing.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby TennesseeTuxedo » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:20 pm

In 1994 my father and I were booking cut and sew work for the garment factories we owned in Tennessee. We had over 700 sewing machine operators at the time.

By July of '96 I was in the mortgage business and he was down to about 50 machines in one solitary plant.

Thank you NAFTA.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby Supa Dexta » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:28 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:Didn't Canada have mad cow awhile back?


You mean like those times the US had mad cow cases as well? And that's just the documented cases..

Judging from the news trends these days, its not as if there are large scale coverups down there from time to time either... :roll:
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby Nesikep » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:30 pm

Canadians had the genius to fight COOL... they went to court MANY times, and won every time...

So then COOL was eliminated, and they bring in Brazilian beef.. We sure won that one! :banghead:

Supa Dexta +1 :)
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby True Grit Farms » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:21 pm

Nesikep wrote:Canadians had the genius to fight COOL... they went to court MANY times, and won every time...

So then COOL was eliminated, and they bring in Brazilian beef.. We sure won that one! :banghead:

Supa Dexta +1 :)


You guys definitely did your part to help. But at least y'all have way better beef than Mexico.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby Nesikep » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:59 pm

Thanks :)
I think COOL was good.. I think a consumer ought to be able to make their own decisions...
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby WalnutCrest » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:14 am

Nesikep wrote:Thanks :)
I think COOL was good.. I think a consumer ought to be able to make their own informed decisions...


Edited for improved accuracy and clarity.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby js1234 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:21 am

True Grit Farms wrote:
Nesikep wrote:Canadians had the genius to fight COOL... they went to court MANY times, and won every time...

So then COOL was eliminated, and they bring in Brazilian beef.. We sure won that one! :banghead:

Supa Dexta +1 :)


You guys definitely did your part to help. But at least y'all have way better beef than Mexico.

The typical pen of #1 Mexicans are better cattle than #1 Okies. Healthier and feed better than them too. Owned more than a few of both over the years. I've got no particular affinity to running Mexicans, we would run all Watusi if they were the most profitable use of our ranches.
We've seen our operation ebb and flow in terms of Mexican cattle. At times from the 1940's through mid 1980's, our yearling segment ran a varying percentage of our 2 season stocker inventory as Mexicans most every season. Our largest Mexican year, we crossed 25,000 Mexican steers to run on our ranches. We ran a much smaller number of Mexican steers through the back half of the 1980's up through the early 2000's, a year or two, not buying any. The reason for this was that light Nevada calves improved and were a better two season grass option for our needs. Over the last decade, that has started to change. More and more of these Nevada/Utah/Oregon/Arizona desert ranches wean bigger and bigger calves that don't work as well for our 2 season program and in more than a few instances, while the cattle are getting prettier, they are losing some of that toughness that those desert ranches bred and our med costs and treat rates for the cowboys riding through them are rising and their overall utilization of our country has declined somewhat. No to mention, the good light native calves that can be bought are a narrowing pool. While I buy a lot of them, and the ones that are around really are superior cattle, I'm not comfortable or certain that I can buy enough of them to meet our 2 season yearling needs every season. This has led to the pendulum swinging back and us buying a greater percentage of our 2 season stocker inventory as Mexicans every season. The heavier stockers, that go to grass for one season then to the feedyard, still is the domain of native cattle for us as we elect not to bang up against the wheat guys who buy 5x6 weight Mexicans.

Canadian cattle I just don't have a whole lot to do with any consistency. After their beef business melted down back in 2004 or 2005 after that whole mad cow thing, we bought a tremendous amount of Canadian feeders when they were hammered down unbelievably cheap based purely on non market factors and panic selling and it was obvious that there was a good profit to be made if one had cash, a marketing avenue and was willing to stick a capable guy up there for 18 months like we did. While we have owned some on feed several times since, that was really our one big Canadian cattle endeavor.

I guess I'm the enemy as it were.

Funny thing, I'm not Tyson or JBS. Just the fourth generation rancher on a family operation trying to grow and preserve it for the fifth generation. No multinational conglomerate here. I won't deny we've been blessed and have expanded to multiple States and are pretty vertically integrated but the current ownership of our company isn't some nefarious board shrouded in mystery but rather my parents, myself and my wife, my sister and her husband and hopefully someday, our respective kids.
I also won't deny that R-Calf over the last 20 odd years its been beating it's drum has raised some legitimate concerns and COOL has some value on multiple levels but accepting the broad brush strokes that makes not being for COOL in it's entirety bad or it's detractors unAmerican no matter what or some such nonsense is just as silly.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby angus9259 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:09 am

Bigfoot wrote:Personally, I think it's time that we took a minute, and actually analyzed the writing on the wall. We are just another industry that has put under by cheap imports. We won't bounce back. We won't have a come back. It's just gone. .


x2.


The only thing we might have is the local buyer or restaurant that needs/wants organic, free range verified or farm verified. While corporate America runs the show and makes the rules, my neighbor still knows if he bought a side of beef from me or not.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby WalnutCrest » Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:23 am

angus9259 wrote:
Bigfoot wrote:Personally, I think it's time that we took a minute, and actually analyzed the writing on the wall. We are just another industry that has put under by cheap imports. We won't bounce back. We won't have a come back. It's just gone. .


x2.


The only thing we might have is the local buyer or restaurant that needs/wants organic, free range verified or farm verified. While corporate America runs the show and makes the rules, my neighbor still knows if he bought a side of beef from me or not.


It's just for this reason we've been toying with the idea of starting some sort of off-the-farm grocery store ---- your beef was sired by those bulls over there, your pork was out of one of those sows over there, your eggs came from those hens in that coop over there, etc.

All that'll probably be illegal in a couple of weeks...
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby True Grit Farms » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:22 am

js1234 wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:
Nesikep wrote:Canadians had the genius to fight COOL... they went to court MANY times, and won every time...

So then COOL was eliminated, and they bring in Brazilian beef.. We sure won that one! :banghead:

Supa Dexta +1 :)


You guys definitely did your part to help. But at least y'all have way better beef than Mexico.

The typical pen of #1 Mexicans are better cattle than #1 Okies. Healthier and feed better than them too. Owned more than a few of both over the years. I've got no particular affinity to running Mexicans, we would run all Watusi if they were the most profitable use of our ranches.
We've seen our operation ebb and flow in terms of Mexican cattle. At times from the 1940's through mid 1980's, our yearling segment ran a varying percentage of our 2 season stocker inventory as Mexicans most every season. Our largest Mexican year, we crossed 25,000 Mexican steers to run on our ranches. We ran a much smaller number of Mexican steers through the back half of the 1980's up through the early 2000's, a year or two, not buying any. The reason for this was that light Nevada calves improved and were a better two season grass option for our needs. Over the last decade, that has started to change. More and more of these Nevada/Utah/Oregon/Arizona desert ranches wean bigger and bigger calves that don't work as well for our 2 season program and in more than a few instances, while the cattle are getting prettier, they are losing some of that toughness that those desert ranches bred and our med costs and treat rates for the cowboys riding through them are rising and their overall utilization of our country has declined somewhat. No to mention, the good light native calves that can be bought are a narrowing pool. While I buy a lot of them, and the ones that are around really are superior cattle, I'm not comfortable or certain that I can buy enough of them to meet our 2 season yearling needs every season. This has led to the pendulum swinging back and us buying a greater percentage of our 2 season stocker inventory as Mexicans every season. The heavier stockers, that go to grass for one season then to the feedyard, still is the domain of native cattle for us as we elect not to bang up against the wheat guys who buy 5x6 weight Mexicans.

Canadian cattle I just don't have a whole lot to do with any consistency. After their beef business melted down back in 2004 or 2005 after that whole mad cow thing, we bought a tremendous amount of Canadian feeders when they were hammered down unbelievably cheap based purely on non market factors and panic selling and it was obvious that there was a good profit to be made if one had cash, a marketing avenue and was willing to stick a capable guy up there for 18 months like we did. While we have owned some on feed several times since, that was really our one big Canadian cattle endeavor.

I guess I'm the enemy as it were.

Funny thing, I'm not Tyson or JBS. Just the fourth generation rancher on a family operation trying to grow and preserve it for the fifth generation. No multinational conglomerate here. I won't deny we've been blessed and have expanded to multiple States and are pretty vertically integrated but the current ownership of our company isn't some nefarious board shrouded in mystery but rather my parents, myself and my wife, my sister and her husband and hopefully someday, our respective kids.
I also won't deny that R-Calf over the last 20 odd years its been beating it's drum has raised some legitimate concerns and COOL has some value on multiple levels but accepting the broad brush strokes that makes not being for COOL in it's entirety bad or it's detractors unAmerican no matter what or some such nonsense is just as silly.


Thank you for posting I really appreciate all your advice and knowledge on this issue.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby Margonme » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:27 am

Bigfoot wrote:Personally, I think it's time that we took a minute, and actually analyzed the writing on the wall. We are just another industry that has put under by cheap imports. We won't bounce back. We won't have a come back. It's just gone. I live in a town, that's entire economy is based on manufacturing. I can name product after product that left here to never to return. We just met the same fate. The packer was makin a dollar, and we were makin a dime. They found somebody willing to perform the same task for a nickel.

We say it, and I guess it sounds cliche, but what many of us do is way of life. It's not what I do, it's what I am. I felt the same way about tobacco absolutely refused to raise one single stalk for the companies, and never will. I still miss it. I'm afraid cattle will go the same way for me. I hate to let anybody down, and not be optimistic, but I'm not optimistic at all. I've seen it too many times, on too many other products.

I truly am sorry to feel this way, and I wish for the younger generation that it wasn't happening. I sat my son down this evening and tried to explain to him. He has been under the full understanding for a while now, that the market has fallen. It's started to affect many of our spending practices. He didn't take it so well, that this might be something that we used to do. Much as I love it, I won't do it for nothing.


That is a tough one. Amazing how it affects people.

You make an excellent point. It has happened to every other enterprise where people take raw materials and produce something of higher value. In our vocation, we convert grass to a product of higher value. That feeds the need to breed better cattle, that feeds interest in the show business, etc. I tend to agree with you. I can see the part of the business that I enjoy dying on the vine - which is breeding and producing cattle to satisfy those who chase pedigrees and fancy cattle. That market has not suffered as much until lately.

The international meatpackers are not going to put premiums on quality. That is a fact Jack. Use your analogy of other business that have disappeared. Everyone suffers a tremendous loss of quality. Just one example, furniture. Today's furniture is shyt compared to what it was when quality furniture was made in the USA.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby True Grit Farms » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:37 am

WalnutCrest wrote:
angus9259 wrote:
Bigfoot wrote:Personally, I think it's time that we took a minute, and actually analyzed the writing on the wall. We are just another industry that has put under by cheap imports. We won't bounce back. We won't have a come back. It's just gone. .


x2.


The only thing we might have is the local buyer or restaurant that needs/wants organic, free range verified or farm verified. While corporate America runs the show and makes the rules, my neighbor still knows if he bought a side of beef from me or not.


It's just for this reason we've been toying with the idea of starting some sort of off-the-farm grocery store ---- your beef was sired by those bulls over there, your pork was out of one of those sows over there, your eggs came from those hens in that coop over there, etc.

All that'll probably be illegal in a couple of weeks...


We did this in same deal in the fishing business since 1928. Our boats would be to the dock at 4 pm every day and we'd sell fresh seafood to the public. Before you knew it we needed this license and that license. And once we got past that it was the health department and we kind of got past them. Then came the state GFC, they weren't to bad, but the USDA and NMFS was more than our pocket book and heart could handle. Funny thing was we never had any problems till we started making money.
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Re: Why Prices Are Down

Postby pdfangus » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:14 am

We did this in same deal in the fishing business since 1928. Our boats would be to the dock at 4 pm every day and we'd sell fresh seafood to the public. Before you knew it we needed this license and that license. And once we got past that it was the health department and we kind of got past them. Then came the state GFC, they weren't to bad, but the USDA and NMFS was more than our pocket book and heart could handle. Funny thing was we never had any problems till we started making money.


and I will bet the big players were supporting the screamers for more regulation....
with the goal of squeezing out the smaller competition.
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