Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:10 pm

Uneven demand here. Herd an Iowa sale sold the lead off heifers for $2100. :shock:
Guys who bought old cows last fall should make some $$$. Productivity does not equal profit.
I have a growing list of cows to short wean, sell in 2017, and then replace with $1/# 2016 heifers. :banana:
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:27 pm

Dave wrote:I bought 5, 3 mid aged, 1 old cow, and 1 heifer. All black and bred 6-7 months with an average weight of about 1,250. Paid $714 average. The most I paid was $800.


Dave - You are making the profit thing look too easy. Could be a bunch of bullish market timers jumping in now for the 64 cent heifers. :nod:
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Dave » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:27 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Dave wrote:I bought 5, 3 mid aged, 1 old cow, and 1 heifer. All black and bred 6-7 months with an average weight of about 1,250. Paid $714 average. The most I paid was $800.


Dave - You are making the profit thing look too easy. Could be a bunch of bullish market timers jumping in now for the 64 cent heifers. :nod:


I was happy with them. Averaged costing 59 cents a pound for the five and the heifer drove that up some. Cows will put on some weight over the summer and kill for what I paid for them. All I will have against the calves is the hay between now and spring grass and the cos pasture rent. Hay is already in the stack and wrote off against last year's heifers. And my pasture rent is cheap. I probably should have bought more. There was a string of good looking Hereford that sold for $750 but they announced that they were bred Hereford..... that knocks a $100 off those calves when they sell. If I were going to hold them, I would have bought them and bred them back to a angus bull. But I don't want Herefords or a one and done deal unless they get real cheap.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby RanchMan90 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:20 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Dave wrote:I bought 5, 3 mid aged, 1 old cow, and 1 heifer. All black and bred 6-7 months with an average weight of about 1,250. Paid $714 average. The most I paid was $800.


Dave - You are making the profit thing look too easy. Could be a bunch of bullish market timers jumping in now for the 64 cent heifers. :nod:

I'm really liking the stocker cow deal right now, I like to keep a liquid herd myself. The same costs as a 500 lb steer, half the stocking rate but much lower risk. Buying first trimester cows when grass comes on will eliminate the need for bulls and give somebody a tax break in end of the year special sales as pairs :D
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:04 pm

RanchMan90 wrote:I'm really liking the stocker cow deal right now :D


I like stocker stockers but they do take more capital and can have more risk.

I was at a state cattlemen's event last fall when the BTO were comparing notes. A couple admitted the only 2016 group they were making money on was old cows. The cows usually come out of the Dakotas and are moved to greener pastures or a TMR pen for one more calf. Some are man eaters so the TMR pen is preferred.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby RanchMan90 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:50 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:I'm really liking the stocker cow deal right now :D


I like stocker stockers but they do take more capital and can have more risk.

I was at a state cattlemen's event last fall when the BTO were comparing notes. A couple admitted the only 2016 group they were making money on was old cows. The cows usually come out of the Dakotas and are moved to greener pastures or a TMR pen for one more calf. Some are man eaters so the TMR pen is preferred.

I agree. Ive been going back and forth between turning out stocker calves or young (3-5 year old) first trimester cows in April on a lease and care program. Calves cost 50¢ per lb of gain and cow costs 80¢ per day. Just looking for the most ROI on a load lot (48000 lbs) with a moderate risk level (borrowing against my property). For a 250 day grazing period ending in November.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby RanchMan90 » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:37 pm

RanchMan90 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:I'm really liking the stocker cow deal right now :D


I like stocker stockers but they do take more capital and can have more risk.

I was at a state cattlemen's event last fall when the BTO were comparing notes. A couple admitted the only 2016 group they were making money on was old cows. The cows usually come out of the Dakotas and are moved to greener pastures or a TMR pen for one more calf. Some are man eaters so the TMR pen is preferred.

I agree. Ive been going back and forth between turning out stocker calves or young (3-5 year old) first trimester cows in April on a lease and care program. Calves cost 50¢ per lb of gain and cow costs 80¢ per day. Just looking for the most ROI on a load lot (48000 lbs) with a moderate risk level (borrowing against my property). For a 250 day grazing period ending in November.

What do you think?
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby J&D Cattle » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:46 pm

Cow sale last Friday night: highest bred heifers $1900, lots of 4-6 3rd period cows $1600, 7-SS 3rd period cows $1200, BM & Old 3rd period cows $900, open heifers $1150.

I bought 21 BM 3rd period cows that averaged 1270lbs for $890/head. All had good feet and bags and came from one guy.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:15 pm

RanchMan90 wrote:What do you think?


Its all about land, capital, skilled labor. Need to ID where your limitations are:

- I have no idea about the quality and quality of land you have, but many folks don't have stocker quality pasture.
- Stockers require about double the capital per ACRE compared to cows. You should be able to borrow against the cattle - - not property.
- Not sure who or how or where you buy, but it is harder for me to pick off profitable stocker cows around the edges here, than it is to buy profitable stockers.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby WalnutCrest » Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:45 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:What do you think?


<snip>
- Stockers require about double the capital per ACRE compared to cows.
<snip>


Meaning to be fully stocked with stocker calves will take twice the purchasing power to fill-up than it would to be fully stocked with stocker cows? To fill up with calves, you'll invest $50,000 but to fill up the same pasture with stocker cows will cost $25,000?

Just trying to clarify as I read and re-read your comment three times before getting this far along to even be able to post a comment! HA!

Thanks.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:58 am

WalnutCrest wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:- Stockers require about double the capital per ACRE compared to cows.
Meaning to be fully stocked with stocker calves will take twice the purchasing power to fill-up than it would to be fully stocked with stocker cows?


I used to work a lot on gross margin per acre - - which takes you to very different places than $ per head. Lots of variables here, but before the commodity price collapse, it was 2X the capital per acre to stock stockers in my system.

The other part was stocker gross margin per ACRE was about double that of commercial cow/calf. So average return on cattle investment was similar. IF you have stocker quality pasture (sunk cost), and you have surplus capital, then I think the trade offs were around risk and labor. I was 100% stockers when I needed more spring and summer work to keep teenagers off the street. I exited stockers for a couple years because I thought calves got too high. Hindsight says I exited one year too soon. Now I am back in.

Cattle men tend to be a bit optimistic. The area that few are willing to dig into is where will you lose the least equity when the commodity market collapses, again. A Money Ball guy would probably try to come up with risk adjusted expected values based on the phase of the cattle cycle. :shock:
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby midTN_Brangusman » Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:30 am

RanchMan90 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:I'm really liking the stocker cow deal right now :D


I like stocker stockers but they do take more capital and can have more risk.

I was at a state cattlemen's event last fall when the BTO were comparing notes. A couple admitted the only 2016 group they were making money on was old cows. The cows usually come out of the Dakotas and are moved to greener pastures or a TMR pen for one more calf. Some are man eaters so the TMR pen is preferred.

I agree. Ive been going back and forth between turning out stocker calves or young (3-5 year old) first trimester cows in April on a lease and care program. Calves cost 50¢ per lb of gain and cow costs 80¢ per day. Just looking for the most ROI on a load lot (48000 lbs) with a moderate risk level (borrowing against my property). For a 250 day grazing period ending in November.


Stick with the cows. By the time you bury a few and spend a thousand on medicine you will be money ahead.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby RanchMan90 » Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:27 pm

midTN_Brangusman wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:
I like stocker stockers but they do take more capital and can have more risk.

I was at a state cattlemen's event last fall when the BTO were comparing notes. A couple admitted the only 2016 group they were making money on was old cows. The cows usually come out of the Dakotas and are moved to greener pastures or a TMR pen for one more calf. Some are man eaters so the TMR pen is preferred.

I agree. Ive been going back and forth between turning out stocker calves or young (3-5 year old) first trimester cows in April on a lease and care program. Calves cost 50¢ per lb of gain and cow costs 80¢ per day. Just looking for the most ROI on a load lot (48000 lbs) with a moderate risk level (borrowing against my property). For a 250 day grazing period ending in November.


Stick with the cows. By the time you bury a few and spend a thousand on medicine you will be money ahead.

Thanks
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby WalnutCrest » Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:41 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
WalnutCrest wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:- Stockers require about double the capital per ACRE compared to cows.
Meaning to be fully stocked with stocker calves will take twice the purchasing power to fill-up than it would to be fully stocked with stocker cows?


I used to work a lot on gross margin per acre - - which takes you to very different places than $ per head. Lots of variables here, but before the commodity price collapse, it was 2X the capital per acre to stock stockers in my system.

The other part was stocker gross margin per ACRE was about double that of commercial cow/calf. So average return on cattle investment was similar. IF you have stocker quality pasture (sunk cost), and you have surplus capital, then I think the trade offs were around risk and labor. I was 100% stockers when I needed more spring and summer work to keep teenagers off the street. I exited stockers for a couple years because I thought calves got too high. Hindsight says I exited one year too soon. Now I am back in.

Cattle men tend to be a bit optimistic. The area that few are willing to dig into is where will you lose the least equity when the commodity market collapses, again. A Money Ball guy would probably try to come up with risk adjusted expected values based on the phase of the cattle cycle. :shock:


Ahhh...risk-adjusted expected values based on the phase of the cattle cycle. Not asking for too much there, eh?!

May I suggest two books --- Fooled by Randomness (2nd edition) by Nassim Taleb ... and ... Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. We, as a species, do a wonderful job of deluding ourselves about one thing or another all the time. Failure to trick ourselves would lead to death. Which is an interesting conundrum, as tricking ourselves also leads to our death. Not dissimilar from the trials faced by Buridan's donkey.
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Re: Bred Cow Market has been Trumped !

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:01 pm

midTN_Brangusman wrote:Stick with the cows. By the time you bury a few and spend a thousand on medicine you will be money ahead.


Some people like risk, and are really really fast with the pistol syringe...

If you put together a group of stocker cows be realistic about the weaning percentage.

If I was going to go (back) into stocker cows I would not source them locally. Too many hobby guys bidding too high for stocker cows here. I would put a black bull on the ones I trucked in, and resell the better cut in the fall, as replacements.
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