Growing US Cow Herd ?

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Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:11 pm

USDA reported that the cow herd size increased 3.4% last year. Exports look a little shaky... What do you think it will take to stop this expansion?
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby True Grit Farms » Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:30 pm

I think we're seeing it already the numbers haven't caught up yet. Everyone around me held back all their heifers and some steersort. Now that the price has swung up a little they've been selling.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby wbvs58 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:08 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:USDA reported that the cow herd size increased 3.4% last year. Exports look a little shaky... What do you think it will take to stop this expansion?


Widespread drought.

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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby RanchMan90 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:20 pm

X2 on drought
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby sim.-ang.king » Thu Feb 09, 2017 7:38 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:USDA reported that the cow herd size increased 3.4% last year. Exports look a little shaky... What do you think it will take to stop this expansion?

Stopping beef imports...
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Thu Feb 09, 2017 7:57 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:USDA reported that the cow herd size increased 3.4% last year. Exports look a little shaky... What do you think it will take to stop this expansion?

Most that got out in the 2011 drought haven't got back in along with those who hung are still at reduced numbers.
The biggest factor driving that IMO is the average age is 60+ for cattlemen in Texas. Most are enjoying lower inputs along with not worrying about drought.
I reduced them to less than half didn't restock due to health much more enjoyable. I don't know about your state according to the last TAMU workshop I attended 92% of beef owne were from operations of 35 head or less in the state.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:24 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:I reduced them to less than half didn't restock due to health much more enjoyable.


So you have extra grass and more free time now?
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:38 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:I think we're seeing it already the numbers haven't caught up yet. Everyone around me held back all their heifers and some steersort. Now that the price has swung up a little they've been selling.


Steers are going to town here, but half of the bigger operations holding heifers for expansion.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:43 pm

RanchMan90 wrote:X2 on drought


Most likely. This would also drive up grain prices.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:54 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:I reduced them to less than half didn't restock due to health much more enjoyable.


So you have extra grass and more free time now?


No free time with my back and neck I can't do the big jobs anymore. I thank the good Lord everyday for titanium.
I am just scared I would die without a cow. I do have extra grass
Last edited by Caustic Burno on Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby RanchMan90 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:11 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
RanchMan90 wrote:X2 on drought


Most likely. This would also drive up grain prices.

Yep, that would sure make some cows come to town along with petroleum prices. It's a cycle, even if not a predictable 7-10 year cycle. I'm sure the old timers have seen this many times over. What do you think?
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:58 pm

- A hot topic here is integrating crops and cattle (like the old days). It is a very tough infrastructure sell even though it makes soil and financial sense. The organic folks buy in because they can not afford to purchase much fertility.
- A related topic here is retaining calves and taking them back to grass (like the old days). There are some commodity folks pushing this using financials from the peak of the cattle cycle... This is also a tough sell because the typical cow/calf operator does not have high energy feed nor working capital to do this. The grass fed folks buy in because they usually do not have another source of feeders.
- If you piece these together along with MIG you come up with semi interesting enterprise budgets. I think there is sustainable system here for folks in areas that have some history of crop production. And I see this currently increasing cow numbers in my area. You are also somewhat drought proofed. Practitioners can sell off yearlings in a drought, graze some annuals, and preserve the cow herd for a period.
- So who has the most risk in a drought? Who is the swing producer? Is it the traditional cow/calf guy on range?
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby True Grit Farms » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:19 am

The Texas drought lined up with the Stars and inflated the price of beef to record highs. There was no rhyme or reason to the high prices of 2014 or the record low prices of 2016.
At $1.30 - $1.50 lb for steers, the consumers can afford to buy my product and I can make money. If fuel and grain go back to historic highs beef needs to follow. The price is about perfect right now, it'll weed the wannabes out. And those who stick with it will be able to make a living, living the dream.
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby sim.-ang.king » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:52 am

True Grit Farms wrote:The Texas drought lined up with the Stars and inflated the price of beef to record highs. There was no rhyme or reason to the high prices of 2014 or the record low prices of 2016.
At $1.30 - $1.50 lb for steers, the consumers can afford to buy my product and I can make money. If fuel and grain go back to historic highs beef needs to follow. The price is about perfect right now, it'll weed the wannabes out. And those who stick with it will be able to make a living, living the dream.

My thoughts also. Just as $6 corn was to high, $3.00 feeders was way to high, and $1 feeders was to low. If the price can just level off, and maybe get to $2 during a good year, we will all be better off. Going to weed out the one's that can't hack-it, and allow the "old-timers" to be able to buy cows again.
The prices right now are making for some really good deals on the once $3000 cows. ;-)
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Re: Growing US Cow Herd ?

Postby SIMMGAL » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:49 pm

sim.-ang.king wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:The Texas drought lined up with the Stars and inflated the price of beef to record highs. There was no rhyme or reason to the high prices of 2014 or the record low prices of 2016.
At $1.30 - $1.50 lb for steers, the consumers can afford to buy my product and I can make money. If fuel and grain go back to historic highs beef needs to follow. The price is about perfect right now, it'll weed the wannabes out. And those who stick with it will be able to make a living, living the dream.

My thoughts also. Just as $6 corn was to high, $3.00 feeders was way to high, and $1 feeders was to low. If the price can just level off, and maybe get to $2 during a good year, we will all be better off. Going to weed out the one's that can't hack-it, and allow the "old-timers" to be able to buy cows again.
The prices right now are making for some really good deals on the once $3000 cows. ;-)


:nod:

Such a voliatle market! I sure do miss the prices of 2014 though! They bought me my new car!
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