Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
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True Grit Farms
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Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby True Grit Farms » Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:27 am

My guess is we'll see a $20. - $30 dollar @100 weight retreat by fall from where we're at now. Then around 2020 - 2021 we'll see close to record prices again. Cattle numbers must go down before prices can go up. I'm sure it'll be another coulda, shoulda, woulda type of thing for me.
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kenny thomas
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby kenny thomas » Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:15 am

I know the cattle on feed,reports aren't showing it but look at the actual sale numbers at the markets across the US. Most of,the sales are down 1/4 in their numbers from a year ago.
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True Grit Farms
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby True Grit Farms » Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:19 pm

kenny thomas wrote:I know the cattle on feed,reports aren't showing it but look at the actual sale numbers at the markets across the US. Most of,the sales are down 1/4 in their numbers from a year ago.


So are you thinking it's going to take even longer for the weak to be weeded out before the prices can rise? Kenny, we have a lot of new cattle producers in the southeast after the record high prices. Most of the new beef producers bought in at the wrong time and are just trying to get most of their money back. My thinking is if we have another dry summer prices will be even cheaper for good young replacement cows.
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby skyhightree1 » Fri Mar 03, 2017 5:47 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:My guess is we'll see a $20. - $30 dollar @100 weight retreat by fall from where we're at now. Then around 2020 - 2021 we'll see close to record prices again. Cattle numbers must go down before prices can go up. I'm sure it'll be another coulda, shoulda, woulda type of thing for me.


I think you are correct I think its going to be pretty ugly by this fall.
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kenny thomas
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby kenny thomas » Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:50 pm

The drought in your area changes things a lot there. Our cow numbers are very low here. Many farm have no cows on them because of either the age of the owner or that someone from the city owns them and won't repair anything or give us a lease long enough to be worth it.
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby kenny thomas » Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:53 pm

I'm not sure about the total demand for beef, whether it's up or down but in a large area here the market numbers are off a lot.
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby Stocker Steve » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:44 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:My guess is we'll see a $20. - $30 dollar @100 weight retreat by fall from where we're at now. Then around 2020 - 2021 we'll see close to record prices again. Cattle numbers must go down before prices can go up.


Fat futures are about a buck, so odds are that you are close on your guess for. Time to sort the herd, again. :nod:
Trump's TBD trade plan could hurt meat exports badly, so no reason to expect help there.
With the cow herd still growing - - you are off with 2020 guess. Harlan expect the feeder upturn to start in 2020, which means the next peak should follow in 2 to 3 years, unless there is a major drought...
Last edited by Stocker Steve on Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Your guess on the cattle market, price and supply.

Postby RanchMan90 » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:51 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:My guess is we'll see a $20. - $30 dollar @100 weight retreat by fall from where we're at now. Then around 2020 - 2021 we'll see close to record prices again. Cattle numbers must go down before prices can go up.


Fat futures are about a buck, so odds are that you are close on your guess for light calves. Time to sort the herd, again.
Trump's TBD trade plan could hurt meat exports badly, so no reason to expect help there.
With the cow herd still growing - - you are off with 2020 guess. Harlan expect the upturn to start in 2020, which means the peak in 2 to 3 years.

With a 10 year cycle that time frame would be spot on. If prices fell another 20¢ that would be 80% off the peak prices. There's still a little meat left on the bone at this point. :2cents:
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