Replacement Price Cycle ?

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Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:24 pm

Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Ol' 243 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:20 pm

I don't know enough to know. I'm sure it's a little late to try to keep 2016 fall heifers though.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:38 pm

Forecasting is hard. Hindsight not so much.

I am sure if you took your calves to grass - - then the 2016 heifers are still available.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Dave » Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:47 pm

It is getting a little late to be breeding those 2016 heifers. On the other hand I saw what a friend got for some real good 2017 heifers on Western Video. Along with what the few bred heifers on Superior brought. It would pencil out. But I am still a bit gun shy after last year.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:18 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?



No I can buy them cheaper than raise them to production age.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:12 am

Caustic Burno wrote: No I can buy them cheaper than raise them to production age.


Total bred heifer cost (with labor & OH & feed & breeding cost & culling) is truly a scary number.
But many folks do it for less, and the initial heifer calf cost varies greatly.
I think a point of Harlan' heifer stuff is that there are a couple years per price cycle where most operators can raise them for less than future purchase price. Its the cattle/heifer price cycle. :cowboy:

I have a neighbor who always preaches how it is cheaper to buy. I recently offered to buy his 2017 heifer calves. Now he wants to retain them... :lol2:
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:20 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote: No I can buy them cheaper than raise them to production age.


Total bred heifer cost (with labor & OH & feed & breeding cost & culling) is truly a scary number.
But many folks do it for less, and the initial heifer calf cost varies greatly.
I think a point of Harlan' heifer stuff is that there are a couple years per price cycle where most operators can raise them for less than future purchase price. Its the cattle/heifer price cycle. :cowboy:

I have a neighbor who always preaches how it is cheaper to buy. I recently offered to buy his 2017 heifer calves. Now he wants to retain them... :lol2:


I have 1050 in this heifers purchase price with inputs I can't do for that.



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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:06 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote: No I can buy them cheaper than raise them to production age.
I have 1050 in this heifers purchase price with inputs I can't do for that.



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I thought Brimmer X heifers sold for a premium?
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:12 pm

They do I just happened on them when nobody was bidding on groups at the barn.
Got to go every week and have the cash when a deal comes through
Steve I low balled a pen of 4 heifers for 800. Ended up at 850 IMO whoever brought them should have POed them
Got the pen of 4 for 3400 at 8 to 9 months old.
Resold one that her attitude wasn't going to fit in here.
Got 1600 for her as a bred heifer.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Dave » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:00 pm

The friend I mentioned got $1.435 a pound for 83 head of heifers based at 575 pounds. That is $825 a head. That isn't a select few at the sale barn. Probably half of these heifers are AI sired. The man has real good cattle. The last two superior auctions bred heifers brought from $1,400 to $1,875. Sell bred heifers in the price range give you $575 to $1,050 a head to breed them and feed them for a year. That works.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Brute 23 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:49 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?


What was his reasoning for that? Nothing is ever a one size fits all kind of deal..
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:11 pm

Brute 23 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?


What was his reasoning for that? Nothing is ever a one size fits all kind of deal..


He thinks the cattle price cycle has bottomed and we will trend up from here. So retain cheap heifers that will produce expensive calves during 17/18/19/20. :banana:
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Caustic Burno » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:15 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Brute 23 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?


What was his reasoning for that? Nothing is ever a one size fits all kind of deal..


He thinks the cattle price cycle has bottomed and we will trend up from here. So retain cheap heifers that will produce expensive calves during 17/18/19/20. :banana:


I heard an economist from TAMU saying the same thing about price trends earlier this year.
His crystal ball was looking at 18 and out.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Stocker Steve » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:27 pm

Dave wrote:The last two superior auctions bred heifers brought from $1,400 to $1,875. Sell bred heifers in the price range give you $575 to $1,050 a head to breed them and feed them for a year. That works.


Hard to make that per year off a Mama cow... :nod:

I used to run mostly stocker steers because the steer VOG was higher than heifer VOG, but I have changed my ways recently.
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Re: Replacement Price Cycle ?

Postby Brute 23 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:23 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
Brute 23 wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:Harlan just published his latest replacement cost projections and strategies in Beef mag.. He suggested retaining the maximum number of heifer calves in the fall of 2016 and 2017. Are you on board with this?


What was his reasoning for that? Nothing is ever a one size fits all kind of deal..


He thinks the cattle price cycle has bottomed and we will trend up from here. So retain cheap heifers that will produce expensive calves during 17/18/19/20. :banana:


Famous last words... :lol2: if I had a nickle for every time some one said "it won't go any lower" then I would be a rich man. I would much rather ride the up trend then try to predict the upward turn.

I've never been a fan of chasing the market like that any ways. Mother nature is the great equalizer. I believe in running a solid, long term game plan, more of a dollar cost average approach... or a momentum dollar cost average approach being that it's easier to fund coming off of a year of good returns.
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