Prices,Prices,Prices

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
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farmerjan
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby farmerjan » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:33 pm

Labor day weekend is a bad time to compare, but I watched 375 to 450 wt steers bring an avg 1.25 (.90 to 1.38) and some in the 450 to 550 1.20 to 1.30. Heifer prices were nearly the same, maybe .05 to .10 less. Only had 275 head. The rain has stopped here and expect this week for a run; usually have 1500 to 2000 on fridays in the fall, Sept to end of Oct.. If it stays dry now they will come to the sale sooner than later. Buyers are telling us that they don't have the orders, and there is alot of nervous nellies with the economy and the increased cow numbers and drought in some areas....We try to sell in the 400-500 range too and them dry the cows up until next calving.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby skyhightree1 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:16 pm

JMJ Farms wrote:
callmefence wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:Is anyone else's prices dropping about .10-.15 per lb in your areas ?


Yep


Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:


IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby JMJ Farms » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:24 pm

skyhightree1 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
callmefence wrote:
Yep


Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:


IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby Ojp6 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:28 pm

At a sale I go to Kentucky the 4 weight steers brought 33 cents less last week than they did the week before. It's been a big crash in the last 2 and a half weeks. Big bunches of 8-9 weight steers were bringing over 1.50 a couple weeks ago, seems like they are mostly all in the 1.20s now. It could be that a lot more cattle are about to start moving out west, I'm not sure but it isn't fun.

If you need some heifers to breed it could be a decent time to buy. I saw some pretty fancy 8 weight heifers sell Tuesday from .95 to 1.03 that looked like they would make cows. They had a bunch of good 4 weight heifers bring 1.15-1.18 at that same sale.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby skyhightree1 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:33 pm

JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:


IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.


I planned to sell about 15-20 in November but I don't see me doing it when prices are dancing at 1.00lb basically. I got like you plenty of feed so I can hold off till spring or either build a cooler and get into the meat business like my buddy toad. I am like you I knew there would be a correction of prices but I didn't know there was going to be theft. I will for now drop back and wait and see what happens. I am buying here and there still but definitely not in a rush to sell anything. I got a 600lb bull calf that has a rank attitude I want to get rid of him bad but not bad enough at these prices. I retain all my heifers anyway unless they have some issues. I see no need for me to get rid as I have about 17 4x5 bales of hay per head and I haven't baled any peanut vines yet either and a unlimited supply of grain. I can hold off for a while.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby skyhightree1 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:35 pm

Ojp6 wrote:At a sale I go to Kentucky the 4 weight steers brought 33 cents less last week than they did the week before. It's been a big crash in the last 2 and a half weeks. Big bunches of 8-9 weight steers were bringing over 1.50 a couple weeks ago, seems like they are mostly all in the 1.20s now. It could be that a lot more cattle are about to start moving out west, I'm not sure but it isn't fun.

If you need some heifers to breed it could be a decent time to buy. I saw some pretty fancy 8 weight heifers sell Tuesday from .95 to 1.03 that looked like they would make cows. They had a bunch of good 4 weight heifers bring 1.15-1.18 at that same sale.


that's what im after is 4wt heifers - I prefer Herefords so they will be really cheap :cowboy: I want more baldys anyway. I wouldn't mind some char crosses either.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby Ojp6 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:36 pm

JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:


IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.


Seems like if you could make a decent bunch of weaned cattle weighing 6+ they should get a premium. A lot of the sales I've been to lately the value added 6 and 7 weight cattle are bringing more by the pound than the unweaned 4 and 5 weight calves.

But then again if cattle drop another 20 cents you will wish you got rid of them.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby Ojp6 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:37 pm

skyhightree1 wrote:
Ojp6 wrote:At a sale I go to Kentucky the 4 weight steers brought 33 cents less last week than they did the week before. It's been a big crash in the last 2 and a half weeks. Big bunches of 8-9 weight steers were bringing over 1.50 a couple weeks ago, seems like they are mostly all in the 1.20s now. It could be that a lot more cattle are about to start moving out west, I'm not sure but it isn't fun.

If you need some heifers to breed it could be a decent time to buy. I saw some pretty fancy 8 weight heifers sell Tuesday from .95 to 1.03 that looked like they would make cows. They had a bunch of good 4 weight heifers bring 1.15-1.18 at that same sale.


that's what im after is 4wt heifers - I prefer Herefords so they will be really cheap :cowboy: I want more baldys anyway. I wouldn't mind some char crosses either.


They had two Hereford heifers there Tuesday, not fancy but not too bad weighed 430 brought 1.01.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby skyhightree1 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:38 pm

Ojp6 wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
Ojp6 wrote:At a sale I go to Kentucky the 4 weight steers brought 33 cents less last week than they did the week before. It's been a big crash in the last 2 and a half weeks. Big bunches of 8-9 weight steers were bringing over 1.50 a couple weeks ago, seems like they are mostly all in the 1.20s now. It could be that a lot more cattle are about to start moving out west, I'm not sure but it isn't fun.

If you need some heifers to breed it could be a decent time to buy. I saw some pretty fancy 8 weight heifers sell Tuesday from .95 to 1.03 that looked like they would make cows. They had a bunch of good 4 weight heifers bring 1.15-1.18 at that same sale.


that's what im after is 4wt heifers - I prefer Herefords so they will be really cheap :cowboy: I want more baldys anyway. I wouldn't mind some char crosses either.


They had two Hereford heifers there Tuesday, not fancy but not too bad weighed 430 brought 1.01.


I don't need fancy cattle I need mediocre and functional :lol:
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby JMJ Farms » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:58 pm

Ojp6 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.


Seems like if you could make a decent bunch of weaned cattle weighing 6+ they should get a premium. A lot of the sales I've been to lately the value added 6 and 7 weight cattle are bringing more by the pound than the unweaned 4 and 5 weight calves.

But then again if cattle drop another 20 cents you will wish you got rid of them.


Yep and I hope I'm wrong but I think they're gonna keep dropping. I see nothing to stop the bleeding as of yet. Too bad you can't put them in storage like cotton. Cattle are a somewhat time sensitive commodity.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby JMJ Farms » Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:01 pm

skyhightree1 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.


I planned to sell about 15-20 in November but I don't see me doing it when prices are dancing at 1.00lb basically. I got like you plenty of feed so I can hold off till spring or either build a cooler and get into the meat business like my buddy toad. I am like you I knew there would be a correction of prices but I didn't know there was going to be theft. I will for now drop back and wait and see what happens. I am buying here and there still but definitely not in a rush to sell anything. I got a 600lb bull calf that has a rank attitude I want to get rid of him bad but not bad enough at these prices. I retain all my heifers anyway unless they have some issues. I see no need for me to get rid as I have about 17 4x5 bales of hay per head and I haven't baled any peanut vines yet either and a unlimited supply of grain. I can hold off for a while.


Sky, whatever I decide is usually backwards. Had a neighbor offer me 80 acres of peanut hay today but I can't find anyone to bale it. But I've got plenty of good quality grass hay. And plan to plant a good bit of winter grazing. Guess I will probably just sit back and exit. And will probably regret it.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby City Guy » Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:16 am

Pounds of beef consumed per capita is going down. Beef's share of the protein market is dropping. 56% of beef sold is ground beef. WHY?
BECAUSE beef is poor quality and high priced
WHAT IF big brother mandated that all protein sell for the same price per pound? What would happen?
ANSWER (as I see it) 1-2% of beef producer would find a way to make it happen. 98-99% would start raising something else or quit farming altogether.
After a while others would follow the lead of the 1-2% and beef would regain its share of the market.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby True Grit Farms » Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:24 am

Imported beef is the main problem for the US beef market. Our beef exports and tariffs play a part also, but nothing like the beef that's being imported this country. Mexico, Australia and Brazil are the one's to blame for our poor cattle market.
Hopefully after 11/8/16 our imports will slow down, in more ways than one.
It's looking like another slaughter for the fall calf prices. Last year the difference between spring and fall calves was $45k for a pot, this year it should only be half that. Ouch.
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby callmefence » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:13 am

Ojp6 wrote:
JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:
IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery


I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.


Seems like if you could make a decent bunch of weaned cattle weighing 6+ they should get a premium. A lot of the sales I've been to lately the value added 6 and 7 weight cattle are bringing more by the pound than the unweaned 4 and 5 weight calves.

But then again if cattle drop another 20 cents you will wish you got rid of them.


I've seen the same . I often sell before 500 pounds . I've got a group right now, 17 calves We just weaned a couple of days ago. Steers cut ,2 rounds coxien 8 . wormed long-range. I'm gonna hold em 45 days on good fertilized grass and a little grain. The last a week or so I'm gonna run em on oat pasture. When I haul em they are gonna be 700 plus and completely ready for winter pasture. ......hope I get paid for my efforts
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Re: Prices,Prices,Prices

Postby skyhightree1 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:12 am

JMJ Farms wrote:
skyhightree1 wrote:[

I planned to sell about 15-20 in November but I don't see me doing it when prices are dancing at 1.00lb basically. I got like you plenty of feed so I can hold off till spring or either build a cooler and get into the meat business like my buddy toad. I am like you I knew there would be a correction of prices but I didn't know there was going to be theft. I will for now drop back and wait and see what happens. I am buying here and there still but definitely not in a rush to sell anything. I got a 600lb bull calf that has a rank attitude I want to get rid of him bad but not bad enough at these prices. I retain all my heifers anyway unless they have some issues. I see no need for me to get rid as I have about 17 4x5 bales of hay per head and I haven't baled any peanut vines yet either and a unlimited supply of grain. I can hold off for a while.


Sky, whatever I decide is usually backwards. Had a neighbor offer me 80 acres of peanut hay today but I can't find anyone to bale it. But I've got plenty of good quality grass hay. And plan to plant a good bit of winter grazing. Guess I will probably just sit back and exit. And will probably regret it.


That sucks peanut vine hay is good stuff. I will plant more oats this fall too.
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