Corn Market 2016-2017

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1982vett
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby 1982vett » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:03 am

Son of Butch wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

Current price 3.80

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

So operating interest and storage cost eat up the difference to hold for December or July?
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby TexasBred » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:11 am

Son of Butch wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

Current price 3.80

Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10



+/- the basis and delivery for the buyer.
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Son of Butch
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Son of Butch » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:19 pm

1982vett wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:Dec 2017 corn 3.88
July '18 corn 4.10

So operating interest and storage cost eat up the difference to hold for December or July?

Maybe, but corn is already dried and in the bin by November so for most all who own their bins there is no extra
storage costs once it's in the bin... only spoilage risk

Main decisions are usually sell at harvest or hold and if so, hold for how long.
Some might want to hold until new year for tax reasons or sell/deliver before January for tax reasons

22 cents difference between 3.88 dec vs 4.10 july = 5.67% increase holding to july
5.67% in 7 months = 0.81% per month or 9.72% per year
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby TexasBred » Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:50 pm

OR sell with deferred payment until after new year begins and buyer pays you interest on your money. But if you do it one year you have to keep doing it or wait for a year with a big loss to claim to years of sales in one year.
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:53 am

Local elevator is paying $2.85
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby ddd75 » Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:19 am

US average annual production cost for corn: 625/ per acre.
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:59 am

250 bu / acre ?
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Son of Butch » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:00 pm

Son of Butch wrote:Chicago Market
7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

2 different market forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range
I think they are full of xxxx...
but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices
Right now grain bin doors are welded shut until at least March expecting prices to slowly grind upwards till June.
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:54 am

Some new grain bin sales occurring here.
Land renters are getting hard to find.
Many traditional dairies are raising feed at a higher cost than the market value, and then losing $ making milk with the feed. :(
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:00 am

Son of Butch wrote:update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices.


At what point do you lose less money by fallowing the land?
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:07 am

You're just mean... :) ... but would have been better off renting out the crop land the last 2 years.
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:18 am

Son of Butch wrote:You're just mean... :) ... but would have been better off renting out the crop land the last 2 years.



I am serious about calculating the chemical fallow breakeven.

I know some folks count on ARC or crop insurance, but that does not work well in lower history production counties.

You could blow on a season long cover crop to improve soil health, and then turn the cows out into it during the fall to really mess with the coffee shop experts. :cowboy:
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby ddd75 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:41 am

paying 250 - 300 / ac for crop ground here still.

-=
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby TexasBred » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 am

Son of Butch wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:Chicago Market
7/14/16 Corn closed at 3.81
7/14/17 Corn closed at 3.65
trading range for the last 12 months has been from 3.41 - 3.92

2 different market forecasters have projected new crop December 2017 corn in the 4.40 - 4.70 range
I think they are full of xxxx...
but my wild guess is maybe we'll be seeing 4.30 corn in 2018

update
12/14/17 Corn 3.36
July 2018 Corn futures 3.65

3.36 vs 4.40 December corn = Market 'experts' were only off by $1.04 (31%)
I'm taming down my optimistic 4.30 corn in 2018 to 3.81 hoping for spring run up back to 2016 July Corn prices
Right now grain bin doors are welded shut until at least March expecting prices to slowly grind upwards till June.

What phase is the moon in???
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Re: Corn Market 2016-2017

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:04 am

New Moon is 12/18/17
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