NFL - playoffs

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True Grit Farms
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby True Grit Farms » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:27 am

Son of Butch wrote:
haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

I'll respectfully disagree. I see it as a poor investment, therefore not the best bet.
A better bet is Case Keenum is destined to get his 1st ring.
Sure Brady is favored, but Keenum risk return on investment makes it the smarter choice... in my opinion.

$100 bet on New England to win the Super Bowl returns $195.20
you risk losing $100 just to make a $95.20 profit and Patriots have to win 2 games to do it.

$100 on Vikings to win the Super Bowl currently returns $332
risking $100 to make $232

Straight $100 win bet on N.E to beat Jacksonville wins you only $25
Straight win bet on the Vikings over Philly $100 wins $62.50

The "Best Play" in my opinion is a 'control' parlay
$100 Vikings to beat Philly = $162.50
IF Vikings lose you sit in the corner crying while sucking your thumb... no more gambling for you.

I project N.E. will be in the Super Bowl and the money line for a win bet on Vikings will be 2.20 (or better)

IF Vikings beat Philly parlay the $162.50 on the Vikings to win
$162.50 x 2.2 = $357.50
risking $100 to make $257.50
rather than the current $100 to make $232

Of course IF Jacksonville is in the Super Bowl then the current wager returning $232 would be the better option
as a $162 win bet on the Vikings will return much less than $232

The main disadvantage to a "Control Parlay" is nearly all the gamblers I know don't have the control to execute it.
IF it goes off the tracks by losing the 1st game, most dig in their pocket out a stupid 'need' to still bet the 2nd.

Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet. This is all very informative to me SOB, but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby haase » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:16 am

Sob, is your off the farm job working at a casino? You have all these bets and numbers figured out, the only money I have bet is on the Superbowl, and it's a pool,not much to figure out in them, I'm still pulling for your Vikings.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ga.prime » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:31 am

Remember Jimmy "The Greek" Schneider? He was great.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Stocker Steve » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:50 am

haase wrote:Sob, is your off the farm job working at a casino?


I thought the beef business was a casino?
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby TexasBred » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:04 am

True Grit Farms wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:
haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

I'll respectfully disagree. I see it as a poor investment, therefore not the best bet.
A better bet is Case Keenum is destined to get his 1st ring.
Sure Brady is favored, but Keenum risk return on investment makes it the smarter choice... in my opinion.

$100 bet on New England to win the Super Bowl returns $195.20
you risk losing $100 just to make a $95.20 profit and Patriots have to win 2 games to do it.

$100 on Vikings to win the Super Bowl currently returns $332
risking $100 to make $232

Straight $100 win bet on N.E to beat Jacksonville wins you only $25
Straight win bet on the Vikings over Philly $100 wins $62.50

The "Best Play" in my opinion is a 'control' parlay
$100 Vikings to beat Philly = $162.50
IF Vikings lose you sit in the corner crying while sucking your thumb... no more gambling for you.

I project N.E. will be in the Super Bowl and the money line for a win bet on Vikings will be 2.20 (or better)

IF Vikings beat Philly parlay the $162.50 on the Vikings to win
$162.50 x 2.2 = $357.50
risking $100 to make $257.50
rather than the current $100 to make $232

Of course IF Jacksonville is in the Super Bowl then the current wager returning $232 would be the better option
as a $162 win bet on the Vikings will return much less than $232

The main disadvantage to a "Control Parlay" is nearly all the gamblers I know don't have the control to execute it.
IF it goes off the tracks by losing the 1st game, most dig in their pocket out a stupid 'need' to still bet the 2nd.

Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet. This is all very informative to me SOB, but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.

I agree 100%....Butch may be a professional gambler but seems he loses a lot too. As for super bowl champ, I'm not too worried about Keenum's destiny. I do know he better be the best QB in football the day he lines up against Tom Brady. Odds of that are slim to none.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:20 am

haase wrote:Sob, is your off the farm job working at a casino?

Once upon a time for several years it was, but not as an employee. (the blackjack table & poker)
As a young'en long before online was available also assisted for a short time with placing football wagers.
(Until the guy 2 spots above me got busted and I realized the risk/reward ratio was too narrow) :)
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:46 am

True Grit Farms wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:
haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

I'll respectfully disagree. I see it as a poor investment, therefore not the best bet.

Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet.
This is all very informative to me SOB, but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.

I agree with you Grit.
I can tell you a lot of stories and 80% of them don't have happy endings.
Of the remainder with happy endings 1/2 of them were not happy for someone else.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Bestoutwest » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:29 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet. This is all very informative to me SOB, but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.


I went to a casino once for a PBR. Before the event we wondered through the casino checking things out. I had always wanted to play blackjack at a casino so I found a table. It was a Friday night and the only tables they had open were $15/hand. In about 2 minutes I lost $30. Being in college, this trip was a big expense. That really added to it. Since then I have vowed to play nothing but penny slots b/c those are fun and you can play for an hour on $5. Other than that, betting sucks.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:51 pm

TexasBred wrote:I agree 100%....Butch may be a professional gambler but seems he loses a lot too.
As for super bowl champ, I'm not too worried about Keenum's destiny.
I do know he better be the best QB in football the day he lines up against Tom Brady.
Odds of that are slim to none.

Brady's final comeback drive in last year's super bowl cemented him in place as the greatest QB of all time.
(Joe Montana 2a and Peyton Manning 2b)

BUT Keenum doesn't have to be better than Brady. It's a team sport.
Very Important that Zimmer's defensive schemes need to be better than both Josh McDaniels and Brady.
A tough row to hoe.....First things First and for now that's Philly

I've never considered myself a gambler (pro or otherwise) Statistical Risk Manager - yes- gambler -no-
100% guarantee anyone playing blackjack regularly will lose more hands than they will win.
The Only Way to end up ahead playing blackjack is by wagering more on the winning hands than on the losers.
(or cheat)

disclaimer:
I have an emotional bias favoring the Vikings and there's no good place for emotion in risk management.

p.s.
Belichick hasn't even awarded Brady "Patriot of the Week" all season... hope he's not saving it for the Super Bowl. LOL
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:00 pm

Bestoutwest wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet. This is all very informative to me SOB,
but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.


I went to a casino once for a PBR. Before the event we wondered through the casino checking things out. I had always wanted to play blackjack at a casino so I found a table. It was a Friday night and the only tables they had open were $15/hand. In about 2 minutes I lost $30. Being in college, this trip was a big expense. That really added to it. Since then I have vowed to play nothing but penny slots b/c those are fun and you can play for an hour on $5. Other than that, betting sucks.

You're a lucky man.
Unlucky is when you win on your first time in a casino! :)
(The next thing you know is you'll think you know what your doing)
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby True Grit Farms » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:45 pm

Bestoutwest wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:Any bet is a bad bet. IMO
I never knew there was so much involved in making a bet. This is all very informative to me SOB, but I'll just bet on keeping my money in my pocket.


I went to a casino once for a PBR. Before the event we wondered through the casino checking things out. I had always wanted to play blackjack at a casino so I found a table. It was a Friday night and the only tables they had open were $15/hand. In about 2 minutes I lost $30. Being in college, this trip was a big expense. That really added to it. Since then I have vowed to play nothing but penny slots b/c those are fun and you can play for an hour on $5. Other than that, betting sucks.


I always took the crews to the casino and gave each one a $100 bill to waste, no one has ever came home with more than they left with. I won a good lick on slots and split it up between them and they lost all of that plus their $100. I cashed my tokens in pocketed my $450 and watched those fools give it all back. I enjoy people watching but boy are some crazy.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Bestoutwest » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:45 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:I always took the crews to the casino and gave each one a $100 bill to waste, no one has ever came home with more than they left with. I won a good lick on slots and split it up between them and they lost all of that plus their $100. I cashed my tokens in pocketed my $450 and watched those fools give it all back. I enjoy people watching but boy are some crazy.


People watching at casinos is pretty fun. All those people with their weird rituals. Gets pretty entertaining. I can't imaging working in one, now there's a job that's got to get old fast.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby haase » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:49 pm

Sob, if ya lived closer I'd invite you to some of our Texas holdem games we have a lot of fun with that, some times they go into the morning hours.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Boot Jack Bulls » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:49 pm

Bestoutwest wrote:
True Grit Farms wrote:I always took the crews to the casino and gave each one a $100 bill to waste, no one has ever came home with more than they left with. I won a good lick on slots and split it up between them and they lost all of that plus their $100. I cashed my tokens in pocketed my $450 and watched those fools give it all back. I enjoy people watching but boy are some crazy.


People watching at casinos is pretty fun. All those people with their weird rituals. Gets pretty entertaining. I can't imaging working in one, now there's a job that's got to get old fast.

If you only knew....
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby greybeard » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:28 pm

Odds, if Hoyer (Former Hou Texan #30-0) starts Sunday against the Jags?
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