NFL - playoffs

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TexasBred
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby TexasBred » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:00 pm

Son of Butch wrote:Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer always says... get me 21 points and we should win.

Cute NFL promo commercial.... Zimmer writing 10 times one the white board.

I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.


Actually he writes he'll be nicer to the officials.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Bestoutwest » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:19 pm

This weekend is why I don't bet. I think I would have lost every game except NE vs. Tenn. Great games (well, exciting at least), but I didn't see them going the way they did.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:26 pm

Under dogs are now in a win one, lose one streak Against The Spread
Going by that line of my pure genius reasoning :) = first game under dog Saxonville beats the spread.

New England 28
Jacksonville 21

Bortels seemed to have found confidence yesterday, as long as he doesn't revert he is no longer a weak link.
Bilechik is great at game planning and Patriots defense is underrated. Their defensive line is playing great.

New England should be favored by at least 10.5 in my opinion, at least that is where I expected it to open.
Vegas opened them at only 9 pts
The general public is pouring money in with 65% of it coming in on the Patriots and moved the line to 9.5
Vegas knows the public loves to back the Patriots with their money... so I don't think it caught them by surprise.

Vegas is not in business to lose money, which makes me wonder why did they open on the low side...
What do they know that we don't?
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:41 pm

TexasBred wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer always says... get me 21 points and we should win.

Cute NFL promo commercial.... Zimmer writing 10 times one the white board.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.

Actually he writes he'll be nicer to the officials.


LOL - My Bad
Only saw it once and since he's a defensive coach and it's reported that he gives a lot of heat to the offense
here in Minnesota (Norv Turner choosing to leave mid season last year) my man sized brain must have inserted it.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ChrisB » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:28 pm

I would take the under for the NFC game. I'm thinking along the lines of a 13-10 score. 2 really good defenses.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ga.prime » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:48 pm

What about that foolishness requiring the Vikings to come back out for the PAT? It looked like only 8 or 9 Saints got back out there to defend.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby TexasBred » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:09 pm

ga.prime wrote:What about that foolishness requiring the Vikings to come back out for the PAT? It looked like only 8 or 9 Saints got back out there to defend.

Wonder how much money was won or lost on them not kicking the extra point?
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ga.prime » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:30 pm

That's a good question. The bookies or the bettors?
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:46 pm

Vikings opened as 3.5 pt favorites money came in heavy on the Vikings moving the line to 4.5 it was still coming in
on Vikings and by game time it was 5.5 in an effort to get more money bet on the Saints.

Vikes won by 5, so bookmakers definitely lost money and any late money bet went on Saints at 5.5 further
hurting the bookmakers. The public did great... bookmakers got hurt by the no extra point try. (kneel down)
How many $ I don't know.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ga.prime » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:29 pm

Son, thanks for your professional insight.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:23 pm

The 3 heaviest bet teams last week

1. Atlanta to win by 3 (They lost by 5)
2. New England by 13 (They won by 17)
3. Pittsburgh by 7.5 (They lost by 3)

Vegas was 2-1 in their big bet games.... as I said before, they are not in business to lose money.

Jacksonville is 3.5 - 6.5 pts better than Tennessee but...
Getting New England at less than a 10 pt favorite is such a good deal that it just feels like a trap to me
I'm sticking with...
New England 28
Jacksonville 21

My BEST BET is Vikings to cover 3.5
Vikings 24
Eagles 13

Maybe I'm caught up in homer emotion and/or Super Bowl fever... but
The Vikings are a much better team than the Falcons beating them in Atlanta by 5 points 14-9
Possible the Vikings could hold Philly to single digits, but I'm a bit concerned about SS Sendejo's concussion.
Drew Brees hurt Zimmer's defense in the 2nd half, but Nick Foles is not Drew Brees or even Matt Ryan.

The Vikings offense has been hurt more than most realize with starting left guard Nick Easton breaking his leg
in the last game of the season and having to shuffle the line. I'm expecting big efforts from Diggs and Thielen.
IF not 17-13 still covers the spread.

It would be great to see the Vikings defense pitch a shut out. LOL
(but not going to happen)
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby haase » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:22 pm

My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby True Grit Farms » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:14 pm

haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

Let's hope not, even though your right.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby ga.prime » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:16 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:
haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

Let's hope not, even though your right.

I like the Patriots but I'm pulling for the Vikings from here on. I was wanting them to win those other four times they lost the super bowl.
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Re: NFL - playoffs

Postby Son of Butch » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:07 pm

haase wrote:My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

I'll respectfully disagree. I see it as a poor investment, therefore not the best bet.
A better bet is Case Keenum is destined to get his 1st ring.
Sure Brady is favored, but Keenum risk return on investment makes it the smarter choice... in my opinion.

$100 bet on New England to win the Super Bowl returns $195.20
you risk losing $100 just to make a $95.20 profit and Patriots have to win 2 games to do it.

$100 on Vikings to win the Super Bowl currently returns $332
risking $100 to make $232

Straight $100 win bet on N.E to beat Jacksonville wins you only $25
Straight win bet on the Vikings over Philly $100 wins $62.50

The "Best Play" in my opinion is a 'control' parlay
$100 Vikings to beat Philly = $162.50
IF Vikings lose you sit in the corner crying while sucking your thumb... no more gambling for you.

I project N.E. will be in the Super Bowl and the money line for a win bet on Vikings will be 2.20 (or better)

IF Vikings beat Philly parlay the $162.50 on the Vikings to win
$162.50 x 2.2 = $357.50
risking $100 to make $257.50
rather than the current $100 to make $232

Of course IF Jacksonville is in the Super Bowl then the current wager returning $232 would be the better option
as a $162 win bet on the Vikings will return much less than $232

The main disadvantage to a "Control Parlay" is nearly all the gamblers I know don't have the control to execute it.
IF it goes off the tracks by losing the 1st game, most dig in their pocket out a stupid 'need' to still bet the 2nd.
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