EPD's are BS

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Son of Butch
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:27 pm

Midtenn wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:A top 10% bull is still a top 10% bull epds are for comparing individuals to each other or vs breed average use the
% ranking. $W and $B are also affected by the drop in beef prices vs year ago or whenever your bull book was published.


Incorrect statement you put there. The top 10% milk bull I mentioned "VAR generation"' , is no longer a top 10% bull. I'm not talking about dollar values at all. A pound of milk weighs the same every year ....a pound.
I would have never considered using this bull last spring, but now he's at the top of my list, a list in which I have very little confidence...

Of course individual bulls will rise and fall each year as more information is gathered until they reach the unattainable 100% accurate. VAR Generation never was a top 10% milk bull to 100% certainty, in example he was rated a top 10% milk bull to the degree of 50% certainty (maybe he is maybe he isn't) until more information became available proving that he is not and fell. It applies to either pounds or $ values.

+ $100 Beef looks great... until you realize $110 is breed average and $100 is actually 13% below breed average
so if your cows are breed average you are actually regressing genetically using less than a $110 sire.

My point is when using epds use percentile ranking and accuracy.
When using either a pound or $ ranking you better know it's rank vs breed average or you'll be making decisions
in the dark.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Chocolate Cow » Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:09 pm

If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire. From the Angus Association: Beef Value ($B), an index value expressed in dollars per head, is the expected average difference in future progeny performance for postweaning and carcass value compared to progeny of other sires. $Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby boondocks » Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:35 pm

Chocolate Cow wrote:If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire. From the Angus Association: Beef Value ($B), an index value expressed in dollars per head, is the expected average difference in future progeny performance for postweaning and carcass value compared to progeny of other sires. $Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.


Can you explain this a little bit more?
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:01 am

boondocks wrote:
Chocolate Cow wrote:If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire.
$Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating
industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.

Can you explain this a little bit more?

Chocolate Cow is pointing out that Maternal traits and Feedlot traits are antagonistic.
Whenever you select an extreme outlier of one you are usually giving up a lot of the other.
Breeding for well balanced cattle requires finding the happy medium of above average for both and that is nearly
impossible to achieve using extreme single trait selection.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby bse » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:04 am

I started to use Generation 2 yrs ago, didn't personally like his calves so changed my mind.
Midten my question would be with milk at 20 how much milk do you want in your cattle? Are you just trying to raise that number on particular cows?
I
Numbers changed alot with the 1 step, but they readjust every couple of yrs and change lots of numbers.
Starting in the fall breeding season Im going back to breeding cows, not gonna cater to bull buyers and mess with all the extremes they think they require.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Bright Raven » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:15 am

bse wrote:I started to use Generation 2 yrs ago, didn't personally like his calves so changed my mind.
Midten my question would be with milk at 20 how much milk do you want in your cattle? Are you just trying to raise that number on particular cows?
I
Numbers changed alot with the 1 step, but they readjust every couple of yrs and change lots of numbers.
Starting in the fall breeding season Im going back to breeding cows, not gonna cater to bull buyers and mess with all the extremes they think they require.


Barry, does that mean you are going to go back to using Phenotype with less use of the other tools bull buyers are emphasizing?
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby J&D Cattle » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:16 am

I have this on zero authority but was told that AAA had recently updated their EPD's with all current data and this caused the recent swings of some animals. My client heard that they had been updating some of their software or programming and hadn't actually input some of the recent reporting data for quite some time. Anyone else heard these rumors?
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Allenw » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:36 am

bse wrote:I started to use Generation 2 yrs ago, didn't personally like his calves so changed my mind.
Midten my question would be with milk at 20 how much milk do you want in your cattle? Are you just trying to raise that number on particular cows?
I
Numbers changed alot with the 1 step, but they readjust every couple of yrs and change lots of numbers.
Starting in the fall breeding season Im going back to breeding cows, not gonna cater to bull buyers and mess with all the extremes they think they require.


"not gonna cater to bull buyers and mess with all the extremes they think they require."

I question if that isn't part of the numbers changing, data being manipulated by the breeder to make the numbers better. Then as more information comes in over time the numbers begin to average out.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:37 am

Midtenn wrote:Case in point.....VAR Generation 2100, considered a high accuracy sire....right now.... at .41 accuracy.
I looked back at the spring catalogue and he was 44 at .27 accuracy.

Is less than 50% accuracy considered high accuracy?
To use epds a minimal understanding of math is needed, beginning with knowing the difference between high and low.

Winning a hand of blackjack vs a casino is a 48% probability, but in the long run crushes the vast majority.
41% will get you killed deader than dead

As Amarillo Slim said [probably to encourage a Tennessee opponent to draw to an inside straight]
Your odds are always 50/50... either you make it or you don't. :)
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby dun » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:28 am

The Red Angus Association considers 60 and below to be low to medium accuracy
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby bse » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:15 pm

Ron
Yes I'm going to phenotype, the university here has brainwashed these people, they believe if a bull isn't high CED low BW and some crazy YW you loose thousands on calves.
With the advancement in sexed semen, that's all I'm gonna use and not bulls with crazy numbers, bulls that I like something in the pedigree.
My belief if I keep catering to these bull buyers in a short period of time I will give up more Maternal than I already have. After A I all out of cleanup bull will be steered.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Son of Butch » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:40 pm

bse wrote:Ron
Yes I'm going to phenotype, the university here has brainwashed these people....
Tennessee University isn't doing a very good job of brain washing, IF they think .27 accuracy means something.

My belief if I keep catering to these bull buyers in a short period of time I will give up more Maternal than I already have. True, if buyers want a terminal bull and you want to only produce maternal it's lose lose for both parties.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Chocolate Cow » Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:53 pm

The majority of Angus bulls sold today are terminal sires. They're high milk, high growth, high input animals. Their offspring excel in the feedlot but not so much in the pasture. I've found I only need a +10 on milk to have acceptable calves. The females rebreed and stay in good condition while raising their calf. Their winter feed requirements don't hurt me so much either. I don't have big cows. 1,000-1,100 lbs. At one time, I chased the high EPD's with a vengeance. I paid dearly for it with open cows, defective calves, high feed costs and the cow herd looked like death warmed over. I bought a couple of bulls from Scott Shively in North Dakota. He told me to remember "Nature only tolerates average". I've got to have a maternal herd before I can use a terminal sire. And, all of those calves must be sold. Don't keep even one to put back into the herd.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Bright Raven » Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:57 pm

bse wrote:Ron
Yes I'm going to phenotype, the university here has brainwashed these people, they believe if a bull isn't high CED low BW and some crazy YW you loose thousands on calves.
With the advancement in sexed semen, that's all I'm gonna use and not bulls with crazy numbers, bulls that I like something in the pedigree.
My belief if I keep catering to these bull buyers in a short period of time I will give up more Maternal than I already have. After A I all out of cleanup bull will be steered.


Thanks.
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Re: EPD's are BS

Postby Midtenn » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:21 pm

[quote="Son of Butch"][quote="Midtenn"]
Case in point.....VAR Generation 2100, [b]considered a high accuracy sire[/b]....right now.... [b]at .41 accuracy[/b].
I looked back at the spring catalogue and [b]he was[/b] 44 at [b].27 accuracy[/b]. [/quote]
Is less than 50% accuracy considered high accuracy?
To use epds a minimal understanding of math is needed, beginning with knowing the difference between high and low.

Winning a hand of blackjack vs a casino is a 48% probability, but in the long run crushes the vast majority.
41% will get you killed deader than dead

[b]As Amarillo Slim said[/b] [probably to encourage a Tennessee opponent to draw to an inside straight]
[b]Your odds are always 50/50... either you make it or you don't.[/b] :)[/quote]

I said var generation is considered a high accuracy bull. No, his milk is not high accuracy but overall he is a high accuracy bull. So, the question still remains....if it is possible for a number to go from 44 to 20 overnight, do we need to call BS on any milk numbers below .95 accuracy?????
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