Plateau in the EPD race?

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Jeanne - Simme Valley
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby Jeanne - Simme Valley » Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:29 pm

elkwc wrote:
Jeanne - Simme Valley wrote:I put out a newsletter 5 times a year, so I am constantly scanning articles. 10 to 15 (maybe more - time is irrelevant to me anymore) years ago, articles were all promoting smaller is better. I virtually never see that now. Research has taken it further than just how many cows you can run on a specific number of acres. Every animal takes up a certain amount of your time (time is money). Price lost on number of pounds produced and lower price for the smaller calves all point to a moderate cow size is the most money making. What is moderate?? That depends on your resources. All boils down to what works best for your environment.
I have and always will promote EPD's are a TOOL. Don't chase one trait. (be careful of what you wish for!). Every good trait, has a negative trait that is linked to it. Keep things in moderation. You want to increase WW? Pick a bull that has a better WW than what you have at home, and has equally as good or better other traits. Don't pick the top WW bull out there.

And breed associations do not promote what EPD you should be chasing. They provide information for you to utilize. People promote EPD's.


Jeanne I've seen the Hereford and Angus people push certain EPD's. For a while in the Angus it was BW and CED. Then it was $B. I listened to a discussion recently and one breeder asked what EPD or trait they would push next? There was a mix of PB and commercial breeders in the discussion. As he said it seems they have backed off the $B. I read several articles 2-4 years ago pushing BW, CED and then $B. The same with Herefords the association seemed to push BW & CED for a while. I agree it seems certain breeders push carcass, RFI testing, WW &YW, ect but the associations seem to at least around here push certain traits also. They also push their Genomic testing.

I guess that kind of surprises me. Thinking about it, I can see breed associations promoting for people to use CE because they are all wanting to promote "their" breed is the best CE breed. But, it doesn't make sense for them to promote a specific EPD - just all EPD's in general. Interesting. And, yes, they are all promoting their Genomic testing. And maybe that is a good thing. Genomic testing is putting data into the computer that is not influenced by man's ego wanting numbers of his herd to be better than they are. Oh, no one would do that..... would they?
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby elkwc » Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:07 pm

Jeanne - Simme Valley wrote:
elkwc wrote:
Jeanne - Simme Valley wrote:I put out a newsletter 5 times a year, so I am constantly scanning articles. 10 to 15 (maybe more - time is irrelevant to me anymore) years ago, articles were all promoting smaller is better. I virtually never see that now. Research has taken it further than just how many cows you can run on a specific number of acres. Every animal takes up a certain amount of your time (time is money). Price lost on number of pounds produced and lower price for the smaller calves all point to a moderate cow size is the most money making. What is moderate?? That depends on your resources. All boils down to what works best for your environment.
I have and always will promote EPD's are a TOOL. Don't chase one trait. (be careful of what you wish for!). Every good trait, has a negative trait that is linked to it. Keep things in moderation. You want to increase WW? Pick a bull that has a better WW than what you have at home, and has equally as good or better other traits. Don't pick the top WW bull out there.

And breed associations do not promote what EPD you should be chasing. They provide information for you to utilize. People promote EPD's.


Jeanne I've seen the Hereford and Angus people push certain EPD's. For a while in the Angus it was BW and CED. Then it was $B. I listened to a discussion recently and one breeder asked what EPD or trait they would push next? There was a mix of PB and commercial breeders in the discussion. As he said it seems they have backed off the $B. I read several articles 2-4 years ago pushing BW, CED and then $B. The same with Herefords the association seemed to push BW & CED for a while. I agree it seems certain breeders push carcass, RFI testing, WW &YW, ect but the associations seem to at least around here push certain traits also. They also push their Genomic testing.

I guess that kind of surprises me. Thinking about it, I can see breed associations promoting for people to use CE because they are all wanting to promote "their" breed is the best CE breed. But, it doesn't make sense for them to promote a specific EPD - just all EPD's in general. Interesting. And, yes, they are all promoting their Genomic testing. And maybe that is a good thing. Genomic testing is putting data into the computer that is not influenced by man's ego wanting numbers of his herd to be better than they are. Oh, no one would do that..... would they?


+1. I agree and will leave it at that. What myself and other breeders have found interesting that in some groups of ET calves they are close in most of their Genomic testing and then in other groups you see a wide variance.
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby Angus Rocks » Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:31 pm

[/quote]

+1. I agree and will leave it at that. What myself and other breeders have found interesting that in some groups of ET calves they are close in most of their Genomic testing and then in other groups you see a wide variance.[/quote]

That is the very reason why if actual weights and the way they were fed or developed would be way more beneficial to me then the farce epds. You talk about the ET calves what was the difference in actual weights?

I have a friend that has raised seedstock for quite a few years and raises on forage and has 600+ ww but his epds aren't anything good. How much are these associations pushing their agendas so much and don't care about real forage working stock that they tweak so it makes them look bad?
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby Ebenezer » Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:55 pm

The plateau: could it be that the breed (assume Angus?) has reached a level where it is genetically impossible to sustain increases that are genetically stable without additions of other breeds? Not saying that some increase is not there to find but is it the type that will bred true for generations?
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby W.B. » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:18 pm

Genomics will allow for bigger numbers. Same cattle of course just a different formula for increased numbers.
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby NEFarmwife » Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:33 pm

https://www.angus.org/Nce/GeneticTrends.aspx

I’m having trouble seeing this plateau?

I see significant changes in $B and $EN but all others appear to be (at a glance across the board)... changing moderately throughout the years. And slightly more advancement on growth/weight measurements.

But I’m not seeing a plateau.
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby hornedfrogbbq » Tue Jul 31, 2018 4:44 pm

NEFarmwife wrote:https://www.angus.org/Nce/GeneticTrends.aspx

I’m having trouble seeing this plateau?

I see significant changes in $B and $EN but all others appear to be (at a glance across the board)... changing moderately throughout the years. And slightly more advancement on growth/weight measurements.

But I’m not seeing a plateau.


Ooooo, those are great stats. Just to be clear, I didn't mean the entire herd wasn't continuing to improve. I was focused on the semen providers and on AI specifically. Those bulls offered, it seems to us, have NOT made huge strides in $B lately. In our view, the semen providers seem to be tempering that a bit to make for a more well-rounded animal. You can still go get $200B bulls, as i mention in the original post, but we feel that semen producers listened to feedback from the producers that are their customers and the need to moderate milk.

I don't know what the average $B or $EN or Milk index was for ABS or SS for the last 5 years but i might guess that Milk has come down ...and therefor $EN is a bit better...on average...over their whole semen offering. Maybe it's just me.
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby LCBulls » Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:39 pm

If I understand the $ values correctly, than $B, $W, $F etc are calculated vs the current price of Beef, Feed, etc. So, comparing what they used to be 5 years ago to today is not an apples to apples comparison. I think they reconfigure the formula every year or two?
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby NEFarmwife » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:32 am

LCBulls wrote:If I understand the $ values correctly, than $B, $W, $F etc are calculated vs the current price of Beef, Feed, etc. So, comparing what they used to be 5 years ago to today is not an apples to apples comparison. I think they reconfigure the formula every year or two?


I don't know how often they'd recalculate but this is current. If you're a member of AA, you can also do your own $V based on your own costs.


$Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit. These base components used to calculate $Values for any registered animal are:


Feedlot assumptions:
Time on feed 170 Days
Ration cost $240 per dry ton
Fed market $131 per cwt. live


Grid assumptions:
Quality components:
Prime premium (above Choice) $15.00
CAB premium (above Choice) $4.00
Choice-Select spread $11.00
Standard discount $-25.00


Yield components:
YG 1 premium $3.50
YG 2 premium $1.65
YG 3 base $0.00
YG 4 & 5 discount $-12.00
Avg. carcass wt., lb. 861
Heavyweight discount $-23.00
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Re: Plateau in the EPD race?

Postby Ebenezer » Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:52 am

LCBulls wrote:If I understand the $ values correctly, than $B, $W, $F etc are calculated vs the current price of Beef, Feed, etc. So, comparing what they used to be 5 years ago to today is not an apples to apples comparison. I think they reconfigure the formula every year or two?

That's what I understand so the indexes account for inflation and market changes. The desired breed changes of the 70's required off type bulls and cows that, from observation, verbal communications and innuendos, were added via infusion of tall and growthy influences from other breeds. If you look at the "big Angus" of the 60's all tied into a closed, linebred program at the Wye herd, you will see a ceiling on those cattle on YW, YH and such which some see as a detriment and others see as a sign of stability. The genetics tell the story rather than the ads and breeders telling the stories! :???:

We are nearly 50 years from the height craze of the Angus fad machine. It could well be, that in 50 years, the population of the entire breed has been sorted, somewhat stabilized and via "bull of the year" breeding has settled near the real ceiling of the average animal in the population or even into the upper limits of usefulness.
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