futures

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dieselbeef
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futures

Postby dieselbeef » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:59 pm

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Re: futures

Postby Dave » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:56 pm

The futures is a tool that can be used at times but the reality is that it is mostly controlled by people who don't own any cattle. It can give you a long term idea of the market on cattle. It is also very wrong often.
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Son of Butch
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Re: futures

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:32 pm

Futures are the best estimate as to future prices.
Good indicator as they are based on real money buy/sell contracts by producers with enough skin in the game to control risk. The problems arise when 'experts' get involved as investment advisors on how to profit from market fluctuations with buying and selling contracts to those with no or limited inventory as investment opportunities.
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Re: futures

Postby TexasBred » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:00 pm

Son of Butch wrote:Futures are the best estimate as to future prices.
Good indicator as they are based on real money buy/sell contracts by producers with enough skin in the game to control risk. The problems arise when 'experts' get involved as investment advisors on how to profit from market fluctuations with buying and selling contracts to those with no or limited inventory as investment opportunities.

You don't need "inventory" to purchase futures. Only money and balls and many times it can be done with no money.
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Re: futures

Postby ga.prime » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:19 pm

TexasBred wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:Futures are the best estimate as to future prices.
Good indicator as they are based on real money buy/sell contracts by producers with enough skin in the game to control risk. The problems arise when 'experts' get involved as investment advisors on how to profit from market fluctuations with buying and selling contracts to those with no or limited inventory as investment opportunities.

You don't need "inventory" to purchase futures. Only money and balls and many times it can be done with no money.

You don't need any inventory but there's a $10,000 buy in last time I checked.
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Son of Butch
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Re: futures

Postby Son of Butch » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:14 pm

TexasBred wrote:You don't need "inventory" to purchase futures. Only money and balls and many times it can be done with no money.

So true and they are called speculators. Their participation is a form of legalized gambling and adds volatility as the market seeks it's true value.
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Re: futures

Postby dieselbeef » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:37 am

i was looking at it to predict price fluctuations to my advantage
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Re: futures

Postby Bigfoot » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:55 am

dieselbeef wrote:i was looking at it to predict price fluctuations to my advantage


Conceivably, guessing would be 50% accurate. Chances are probably better that way, than studying futures.
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TexasBred
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Re: futures

Postby TexasBred » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:19 am

ga.prime wrote:
TexasBred wrote:
Son of Butch wrote:Futures are the best estimate as to future prices.
Good indicator as they are based on real money buy/sell contracts by producers with enough skin in the game to control risk. The problems arise when 'experts' get involved as investment advisors on how to profit from market fluctuations with buying and selling contracts to those with no or limited inventory as investment opportunities.

You don't need "inventory" to purchase futures. Only money and balls and many times it can be done with no money.

You don't need any inventory but there's a $10,000 buy in last time I checked.

Yep.....due by market closing time that afternoon. A lot can happen in a few hours. That's where the big balls come in.
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Re: futures

Postby Jogeephus » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:42 am

If I recall correctly, Hillary Clinton made a bunch of money on cattle futures. I think she even ended up getting some manure on her in her trades even though she didn't own any cattle.
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Re: futures

Postby bbirder » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:52 am

Jogeephus wrote:If I recall correctly, Hillary Clinton made a bunch of money on cattle futures. I think she even ended up getting some manure on her in her trades even though she didn't own any cattle.


I would bet money that she "Doesn't recall that".
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Re: futures

Postby sim.-ang.king » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:54 am

dieselbeef wrote:i was looking at it to predict price fluctuations to my advantage

I like to look to the past to predict the future of cattle prices.

My crystal ball says: fats recovering in January, sell feeders February-April, buy feeders in May, peak in cattle market in June-August, bottom of cattle market October-December, buy breds in November.
Just as accurate guess as looking at what CME futures today say.
Although I think my crystal ball maybe broken because it's been saying that for the past 12 years... :cowboy: ;-) :lol:
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