Future

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Caustic Burno
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Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Fri May 05, 2017 4:21 pm

All the BS and ribbing aside the future for a young man in the cattle business looks bleak. With the exception of the plains near the actual feedlots.
Before the drought I literally knew hundreds running cattle.
After the drought then the bottom falling out I probably know ten that we would sit and have coffee with.
The average age at the local feed store is in there 7th or 8th decade.
We had ten salebarns we are down to
four.
Makes a fellow wonder if you survive all the :bs: how your going to get your cattle to a market in the future not loosing your pants.
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TennesseeTuxedo
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Re: Future

Postby TennesseeTuxedo » Fri May 05, 2017 4:31 pm

Some will say by marketing locally and taking advantage of the niche markets that are popping up all over the country. Seems to be a lot of momentum behind the "buy local" campaign for meat and produce. Of course most of that crowd wants grass finished hormone free if not completely organic beef.
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Re: Future

Postby Bright Raven » Fri May 05, 2017 4:31 pm

This storm in the west is going to knock out more producers. Your scenario could have the opposite result. With diminishing producers, prices may get high enough that those who stay in can make some money.
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Re: Future

Postby TennesseeTuxedo » Fri May 05, 2017 4:35 pm

Bright Raven wrote:This storm in the west is going to knock out more producers. Your scenario could have the opposite result. With diminishing producers, prices may get high enough that those who stay in can make some money.


That's a very temporary albeit tragic situation. Long term he's right, the seasoned cattlemen are aging out and young folks aren't interested.
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Caustic Burno
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Fri May 05, 2017 4:41 pm

TennesseeTuxedo wrote:Some will say by marketing locally and taking advantage of the niche markets that are popping up all over the country. Seems to be a lot of momentum behind the "buy local" campaign for meat and produce. Of course most of that crowd wants grass finished hormone free if not completely organic beef.

I would completely agree if the USDA hadn't shut down most of our local slaughter plants due to regs or lack of inspectors.
If you got a local operating plant that could be an option
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Re: Future

Postby True Grit Farms » Fri May 05, 2017 7:33 pm

https://blog.extension.uga.edu/plowpoin ... pen-house/

Here's our new deal in middle Georgia. They have a deal worked out with Kroger, and are working with Buckhead Beef to sell Georgia Grown beef to local restaurants throughout the southeast. Lots of Georgia Grown stuff is sold locally and Gary Black our Georgia ag commissioner is helping to push this feedlot big time. This should help the cattlemen and the farmers out. Only time will I guess.
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Re: Future

Postby Brute 23 » Fri May 05, 2017 8:25 pm

I guess I will be the new blood that will have to figure out how to adapt as things change.

With cattle and other aspects I have already seen the opportunities open up as the older generations move out.

My biggest concern is competing with the Argentinas and other places where they can raise beef so cheap they can ship it over and still beat us.

My game plan is to get lean and mean. I don't believe in spending your way to prosperity. They are beating us by doing things the way we did 30 and 50 years ago. It just so happens a big niche market is also opening up for grass fed and no horome beef... which is great because all that stuff is expensive. I'm heading back to more of the range cattle ways... grass and opportunity. The fact is our market is beef and they don't care about papers or studies from universities... the want a decent product at a cheap price. No matter how much you spend or certify it... they are only willing to pay a certain amount for beef. The end.
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Fri May 05, 2017 8:26 pm

True Grit Farms wrote:https://blog.extension.uga.edu/plowpoints/2017/04/chatel-farms-open-house/

Here's our new deal in middle Georgia. They have a deal worked out with Kroger, and are working with Buckhead Beef to sell Georgia Grown beef to local restaurants throughout the southeast. Lots of Georgia Grown stuff is sold locally and Gary Black our Georgia ag commissioner is helping to push this feedlot big time. This should help the cattlemen and the farmers out. Only time will I guess.


That is a fantastic idea and thinking out of the box IMO. Seriously I hope y'all laugh all the way to the bank.
Back in my youth worked as a butcher for a lady owned a bank grocery store and ran 2k head. She contracted with a local slaughter plant her beef went from the farm to the store.
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Fri May 05, 2017 8:35 pm

Brute 23 wrote:I guess I will be the new blood that will have to figure out how to adapt as things change.

With cattle and other aspects I have already seen the opportunities open up as the older generations move out.

My biggest concern is competing with the Argentinas and other places where they can raise beef so cheap they can ship it over and still beat us.

My game plan is to get lean and mean. I don't believe in spending your way to prosperity. They are beating us by doing things the way we did 30 and 50 years ago. It just so happens a big niche market is also opening up for grass fed and no horome beef... which is great because all that stuff is expensive. I'm heading back to more of the range cattle ways... grass and opportunity. The fact is our market is beef and they don't care about papers or studies from universities... the want a decent product at a cheap price. No matter how much you spend or certify it... they are only willing to pay a certain amount for beef. The end.


Lot of truth there Brute.
Americans will spend endless amounts on toys and entertainment.
When they get to the grocery they want cheap and they don't care where it comes from. Then there are the snowflakes that will pay through the nose for "organic "
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Re: Future

Postby True Grit Farms » Fri May 05, 2017 9:48 pm

There's a lot of businesses and people that will pay more for quality beef and seafood. A prime steak is cheaper than Florida lobster, grouper or snapper per pound. I don't care to compete with any imported beef, can't see where I can make it pencil out. I'll let other folks fight over the imported hamburger and chewy steak market. Here's a place in Mooresville, NC that sells off the farm.

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Re: Future

Postby Jogeephus » Fri May 05, 2017 10:08 pm

Gary Black has done a lot of good for Georgia. I wish he could get our state's right to inspect our own food back rather than having to rely on the USDA. That would help more than anything. Gary's predecessor was a crook and an extortionist put in place by the Atlanta voters. He was terrible and some of his cronies are still out there. I hope they all retire soon.
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Re: Future

Postby Brute 23 » Fri May 05, 2017 10:31 pm

You make a good point T Grit. What concerns me is the generation that is raising the beef is also eating the beef. In the older generations the people who have the money to purchase those prime steaks.... choose prime steaks. Those people will become fewer and fewer as the years pass. In the younger generations, the people who can afford prime beef, will choose other food, or far less amounts of beef. The cheap beef market will grow while the prime beef market will dwindle.

This is just what I'm observing by being part of the younger market. Hopefully I'm wrong or some thing will change.
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Re: Future

Postby Cross-7 » Fri May 05, 2017 10:55 pm

It's the way of the world.
Big get bigger and the little guy gets swallowed up.

The big guy operates
on volume and small margins.
The little guy operates on smaller numbers but requires bigger margins.

Add in tax incentives, kickbacks and preferential treatment to who lines your pockets.

Losing battle.
Go big or go home
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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Sat May 06, 2017 12:59 am

Cross-7 wrote:Go big or go home


True, if, you have a low margin commodity product that is the center of your operation. The only commodity that had a respectable per acre profit margin here last year was soybeans - - in large part because our late summer rains were very unusual. I doubt this will repeat.
Local marketing is great but I do not think it is the only path to profit. Our competitive advantages here are that we have lower hay cost and higher deer density than most. Lots of hay means lots of manure... :cowboy: So we are refining a low input crop/forage rotation with about 2 years of grain in a 7 to 8 year long rotation.
We have been making more per head and more per acre with back grounding than with cow/calf. Bud Williams said "better to make money on 10 head than lose money on 100". So we are also reducing cow numbers a bit and increasing lbs/acre.
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Re: Future

Postby ddd75 » Sat May 06, 2017 12:22 pm

Brute 23 wrote:I guess I will be the new blood that will have to figure out how to adapt as things change.

With cattle and other aspects I have already seen the opportunities open up as the older generations move out.

My biggest concern is competing with the Argentinas and other places where they can raise beef so cheap they can ship it over and still beat us.

My game plan is to get lean and mean. I don't believe in spending your way to prosperity. They are beating us by doing things the way we did 30 and 50 years ago. It just so happens a big niche market is also opening up for grass fed and no horome beef... which is great because all that stuff is expensive. I'm heading back to more of the range cattle ways... grass and opportunity. The fact is our market is beef and they don't care about papers or studies from universities... the want a decent product at a cheap price. No matter how much you spend or certify it... they are only willing to pay a certain amount for beef. The end.



bad thing about grass finished beef is the length of time it takes to PROPERLY finish an animal. regular pasture 'range' isn't going to finish an animal. You might sell some beef, but you won't get a returning customer. This is the biggest problem with 'grassfed' beef.. you have ever person that has 4 cows trying to sell one as grassfed beef and its some mix crap cow that weighs 650 lbs.. now you have a consumer with a very bad taste in their mouth. Now they'll be going back to the grocery store.

finishing a grassfed beeve properly isn't cheap, and it takes a planted, high energy forage to finish.
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