Future

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Stocker Steve
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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun May 07, 2017 7:16 am

Caustic Burno wrote:The three area county agents actually put on a workshop on selling your land when retiring. Big bank and realtors had all the graphs and demographics for our area with the projected stats.


What were the recommendations?
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Caustic Burno
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun May 07, 2017 7:21 am

Stocker Steve wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:The three area county agents actually put on a workshop on selling your land when retiring. Big bank and realtors had all the graphs and demographics for our area with the projected stats.


What were the recommendations?

Prices were going to continue to spike in our area due to cheaper prices close to the big cities. They predicting it to double.
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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun May 07, 2017 7:26 am

Caustic Burno wrote:
Stocker Steve wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:The three area county agents actually put on a workshop on selling your land when retiring. Big bank and realtors had all the graphs and demographics for our area with the projected stats.


What were the recommendations?

Prices were going to continue to spike in our area due to cheaper prices close to the big cities. They predicting it to double.


I've been to Port Orange. How far to it and the big city?
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun May 07, 2017 7:51 am

Sixty miles the main take away was our land prices where behind the counties to west and our market was going to improve from US 59 east to the border.
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Brute 23
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Re: Future

Postby Brute 23 » Sun May 07, 2017 8:05 am

Leasing from absentee land owners is the way to go. It's not ideal by any means but it's the future and can be profitable when done right.

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Re: Future

Postby AdamsCreek » Sun May 07, 2017 9:51 am

Brute 23 wrote:Leasing from absentee land owners is the way to go. It's not ideal by any means but it's the future and can be profitable when done right.

That's the conclusion I've reached Brute. The hard part of that is I wont pay as much as the deer hunters and the guys with the government horses.

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Re: Future

Postby Brute 23 » Sun May 07, 2017 10:15 am

AdamsCreek wrote:
Brute 23 wrote:Leasing from absentee land owners is the way to go. It's not ideal by any means but it's the future and can be profitable when done right.

That's the conclusion I've reached Brute. The hard part of that is I wont pay as much as the deer hunters and the guys with the government horses.


You have to go at them from the trust angle. That is more valuable to the good ones than cash. Don't just run cattle, offer to watch the places, help them find trustworthy plumbers, electricians, lawn care, ect. My dad does odd and end, handy man type work and 90% of his work is absentee land owners. It's a great "in" and most of them realize a trust worthy local is far more valuable then a high cash lease.

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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun May 07, 2017 10:35 am

Caustic Burno wrote:Prices were going to continue to spike in our area due to cheaper prices close to the big cities. They predicting it to double.


I moved to where I could afford pasture. I guess that means I am Cattle & Land vs. Land & Cattle. I still expect my land to double in value - - but it will be long after I am gone.

Did any of these stats speakers cover how much taxes, insurance, cost of money, upkeep, ect., would total up during the period it takes for land prices to double?
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Re: Future

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun May 07, 2017 12:53 pm

Steve they were predicting going from an average of 2500 an acre to 10K in ten years. That was a couple years ago and it's hitting 5K pretty commonplace now.
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Re: Future

Postby boondocks » Sun May 07, 2017 11:22 pm

Well everyone keeps heading west and south 'cause they can't take the cold. That means there are (relative) land bargains in colder climates maybe?
In terms of selling grass-fed beef, it ain't no panacea, for us anyway. We can get a little bit of a premium (over Walmart, eg) but we're too far away from people with "crazy-money." If we wanted to drive it 4-5 hours south into the northern suburbs of NYC and sell it at farmer's markets, we could get more per pound, but then we'd have to hire labor for when we're gone.

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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon May 08, 2017 7:50 am

boondocks wrote:Well everyone keeps heading west and south 'cause they can't take the cold. That means there are (relative) land bargains in colder climates maybe?


I moved north. :nod: My kids used to complain about cold occasionally, but I just told them to work faster.

You have to look at productivity vs. (land) costs. $/acre means very little by itself. There are some BTO beef folks who have moved from Colorado and Montana to Wisconsin and Minnesota for this reason. The regional data suggests that pasture is cheaper here than anywhere but the SE, but wintering costs are higher here than anywhere but the NE.

Allen Nation promoted north/south operations to manage seasonality, but this seems very uncommon. Must be a Damm Yankee thing. What we do see here are a few east/west operations that winter on corn stalks and then get truck cows west to summer pasture. What seems to be missing is someone to summer cattle in the "north", and then grass finish them on the outskirts of crazy money cities like Austin.
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Re: Future

Postby backhoeboogie » Mon May 22, 2017 9:12 am

Caustic Burno wrote:Steve they were predicting going from an average of 2500 an acre to 10K in ten years. That was a couple years ago and it's hitting 5K pretty commonplace now.


I was in the market for 6 months. We gave up. Paid capital gains on land sold. There were places but they were two hours away.
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Re: Future

Postby TexasBred » Mon May 22, 2017 1:39 pm

Stocker Steve wrote:
boondocks wrote:Well everyone keeps heading west and south 'cause they can't take the cold. That means there are (relative) land bargains in colder climates maybe?


I moved north. :nod: My kids used to complain about cold occasionally, but I just told them to work faster.

You have to look at productivity vs. (land) costs. $/acre means very little by itself. There are some BTO beef folks who have moved from Colorado and Montana to Wisconsin and Minnesota for this reason. The regional data suggests that pasture is cheaper here than anywhere but the SE, but wintering costs are higher here than anywhere but the NE.

Allen Nation promoted north/south operations to manage seasonality, but this seems very uncommon. Must be a Damm Yankee thing. What we do see here are a few east/west operations that winter on corn stalks and then get truck cows west to summer pasture. What seems to be missing is someone to summer cattle in the "north", and then grass finish them on the outskirts of crazy money cities like Austin.


Steve, come late June grass down here becomes pretty worthless. Will keep them full but doubt you'd get any real finish off of it.
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Re: Future

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon May 22, 2017 2:27 pm

TexasBred wrote:What seems to be missing is someone to summer cattle in the "north", and then grass finish them on the outskirts of crazy money cities like Austin.


Steve, come late June grass down here becomes pretty worthless. Will keep them full but doubt you'd get any real finish off of it.[/quote]

The north is great for summer grass grazing, and perhaps fall also with some annuals.
A north/south operation would then need a place to go from November on.
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Re: Future

Postby Aaron » Mon May 22, 2017 3:30 pm

Warmer climates and prime ground will be limited to small operations as tax write-offs. Prime cattle country will concentrate into isolated, harsher areas where land is cheaper. The only big operations that will survive in the prime locations are those that are inherited and have minimal debt. But they will be so big that they will be contracting cattle out direct and not propping up the local sales barns. But then again, very few want to inherit a lifetime of work, so those big operations will be very few and far between.
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