Bloodbath at the sale

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farmerjan
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby farmerjan » Mon May 15, 2017 9:34 am

ez14. wrote:
farmerjan wrote:Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.
wish we were getting those milk prices! Around $15.00 here. $17.50 is almost breakeven that would make things a LITTLE easier


ez14; We have a bit more of a fluid milk price base here than you do as I think you are more in the area of cheese making. We don't get paid on components, SNF or CY, but only on BF and premiums for low SCC. I heard that there was a milk co-op that gave farmers a 30 day "pink slip" and told them to find another outlet for their milk and that only about 25% of them did. Was it in Wisc? What the he// does a farmer do in that case, other than sell at a big loss, and go bankrupt, or worse? Part of this is directed towards the smaller farmer and trying to put them out in favor of big farms, shipping half and whole trailer loads at a time etc and so forth. That will give the milk companies more control and it is trying to go in the direction of the "chickenization integration". Most of the dairy farmers in this area are getting alot older also, very few young people want the work, headaches, and stress of 7/24 anymore with no financial incentive to have a decent life. Most aren't asking for a windfall, just to be able to make a living. The ones that are still making it are the mennonites, but even from them I am hearing alot more rumblings of how difficult it is and many are adding poultry houses to diversify. Then they are at the beck and call of the turkey and chicken companies....I don't know what this country is going to do when it is all owned and controlled by a few mega companies and then they are sold out to foreign enterprises and they grab us by the balls and say, okay, screw you, you will pay this or go without. Not to mention the biosecurity and what if those few sources are infected and there is a big selloff/dieout or something like what happened in britain but on a bigger scale due to the larger scale of farming here. We are losing our diversity, our foundation of breeds for seedstock, and our security, in many of the livestock sectors. It is sad and scary for the next generations coming up.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby farmerjan » Mon May 15, 2017 10:01 am

@boondocks; I feel for you there because you also have to fight the long hard winters. I wish we had sold 50 head of cows back 3 years ago because we could be buying 100 for what the 50 would have brought. We did sell more heifers and I am glad. I sat at sales those few years ago and just shook my head at guys paying 2500 and more for grade commercial bred cows; I kept telling everyone I knew that the prices were going to take a big hit and it seemed no one was willing to believe it after 2-3 years of increasing returns on the steers. Who ever heard of steer calves, 500 lb.feeders, bringing $3.00 lb? It was nuts and I refused to let my son even consider buying anything. We did keep back some heifers, and I thought we should have sold more, and he recently told a friend/dairy farmer a couple of weeks ago that he should have listened to me because we would have been much better off if we had cut back more and been in a position to buy now. But, it is all hindsight. I had just been through too many years of the roller coaster prices to think that those high prices would last. Saw it happen with hogs. Had a couple of years that I was selling 30 lb feeder pigs for 2.00 lb then finished hogs were down to .10 lb for 225 lbs. It was awful. Feeder pigs are harder to find now due to the control of the hog industry. There is a niche market for them, but the days of the "pigs being called the mortgage lifter" are gone.

Pretty sad when milk was bringing 17.50/100 wt in the late 80's with inputs 25 to 50% of what they are now. 35 years later and we are still getting the same price and inputs are 2-3 times what they were. But we are supposed to tighten our belt and get more efficient. To he// with having a decent living wage for the owner. It is no wonder the small farmer, independents, sell their land for development when they are ready to retire. And all of us small guys have outside jobs to support a "hobby" that should be adding to our income instead of needing our income to support it.
Do you realize that more than 70% of farmers work another job, or have a spouse that works full time off the farm to be able to provide just for the required insurance and all. It is really sad.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Nesikep » Mon May 15, 2017 10:14 am

Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby farmerjan » Mon May 15, 2017 10:07 pm

Nesikep wrote:Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...


Thank you. Sometimes I get on my soapbox and "write a book" but I really truly feel for the smaller independent farmer anymore. And forget trying to get started unless you are willing to work " 2 full-time jobs", like my son and I do. He wants to retire to the farm but some days we wonder if it is worth it. Even the ones with paid for farms are feeling it.
100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby js1234 » Mon May 15, 2017 11:52 pm

farmerjan wrote:
Nesikep wrote:Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...


100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????

I think in many, many cases, it still does.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Turkeybird » Tue May 16, 2017 2:33 am

Hang in there
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby MRRherefords » Tue May 16, 2017 8:53 am

I may be wrong, but I know a few breeders in New York and there complaint is lack of audience. There are not a ton of registered breeders up that way at least not for Herefords. I received 10 emails over the course of the last week with invitations and ads for that sale. Most of the breeders in the northeast come down south to Maryland and Virginia, where prices are still pretty good for us. In October, I talked to a farm from Connecticut that consigned in the same sale we did in Maryland and they said that, that was their best opportunity to market their registered animals.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Nesikep » Tue May 16, 2017 12:43 pm

js1234 wrote:
farmerjan wrote:
Nesikep wrote:Couple great posts there Farmerjan, and I wholeheartedly agree

I have relatives in europe, and there it's a little different, but the end result is the same,.. Over there, they get completely flooded with paperwork so the farmer isn't farming anymore...


100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????

I think in many, many cases, it still does.

I think the respect is there among our peers, but among the general population not at all
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Stocker Steve » Tue May 16, 2017 1:31 pm

js1234 wrote:
farmerjan wrote:100 years or so ago, being a farmer meant financial security, independence, and a certain amount of prestige/respect in the community. You busted your butt and achieved something, had something to show for the long hours, and supported a family, and something to leave for the next generation. Today ??????
I think in many, many cases, it still does.


Certainly many are struggling, but there are also some family operations that are doing well. I try to learn from them. I try to not overpay for land. What I see are:

- Some farther/son operations that have equity and scale and some rented land leverage. Able to balance income and risk and cost cutting. Grandpa got them going and they never looked back.
- Some country squires who inherited a lot of acres and keep it up. Probably not making a pile but have a new truck and take vacations. Nice when you can inherit it.
- Some imports who sold high priced real estate and doubled down in a lower cost area. Quickest way to get wealthy - - move to an area where people have less than you!
- Skilled hustlers who focus on several niches and make a living at it. Often do farming/trucking or production/construction or production/marketing or ranching/rental property.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby boondocks » Tue May 16, 2017 11:06 pm

MRRherefords wrote:I may be wrong, but I know a few breeders in New York and there complaint is lack of audience. There are not a ton of registered breeders up that way at least not for Herefords. I received 10 emails over the course of the last week with invitations and ads for that sale. Most of the breeders in the northeast come down south to Maryland and Virginia, where prices are still pretty good for us. In October, I talked to a farm from Connecticut that consigned in the same sale we did in Maryland and they said that, that was their best opportunity to market their registered animals.


There are def some topnotch Angus breeders up here. And as one of the above posters notes, recent bull sales have been good. I'm wondering if that's a function of people retaining heifers/cows, so now bull demand is up?

You're correct that there are not nearly as many Herfs here. Lots of Angus (mostly black but some nice reds around if you look), Sim, SimAngus, some Charolais, and of course lots of dairy.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby boondocks » Tue May 16, 2017 11:14 pm

Brute 23 wrote:
Supa Dexta wrote:
boondocks wrote:I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever. :(


That makes no sense.


I thought the same thing... seemed odd. :???:


She's open and I don't want to feed her through another winter. Hay costs up here will kill ya. Anything we keep thru the winter that's not too young has to be bred. At the moment, there's apparently less demand around here for an open 6yo than there is for burger. So, we shall see. If someone comes along in the next few weeks, they'll get a decent deal on her. Otherwise, she will likely go to the grill. We have nice younger ones and really are overstocked even for the summer. (Due to about 80% heifer calves the past 4 yrs). Not ideal but sometimes it's hard choices....
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Son of Butch » Wed May 17, 2017 6:32 am

boondocks wrote:She's open and I don't want to feed her through another winter. Hay costs up here will kill ya.

Perhaps advertise her as registered Open cow/calf pair (NO Bull) bcs by putting her with a bull now = March calf
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby dieselbeef » Wed May 17, 2017 6:39 am

M-5 wrote:2014 made people think that every calf was a 1000.00 and good cows 2500.00 in reality it's no different than it is historically. Of course everyone wants higher prices but if your basing your break even on 14 your not gonna make it


yep..things are back to what they were before the huge spike a few yrs ago..them days are gone
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby boondocks » Wed May 17, 2017 2:54 pm

Son of Butch wrote:
boondocks wrote:She's open and I don't want to feed her through another winter. Hay costs up here will kill ya.

Perhaps advertise her as registered Open cow/calf pair (NO Bull) bcs by putting her with a bull now = March calf


We'll be starting to breed AI in late June, but I'm loathe to put any more $ into her. We're already short on pasture for the summer, so need to downsize some anyway.

Have had several nibbles but they turn out to be just kicking tires....
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