Bloodbath at the sale

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boondocks
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Bloodbath at the sale

Postby boondocks » Sun May 14, 2017 10:38 pm

Jeez, went to the annual New York registered angus and hereford sale yesterday. Man there were some long faces.
Wasn't selling or buying, just trying to get an idea where prices are. Suffice it to say, I'm now gonna list a registered black angus (second-time mama; will re-calve in Sept. at exactly age 3,to a great registered AI bull) for a bunch less than what I was hoping for. Like, for only a few hundred bucks over what I was paying for 8 m.o. weanlings 3-5 years ago.

There were perfectly nice 3-in-1's (with beautiful calves at side) going for 2k. A couple or so nice older cows (say, 2011 vintage) short-bred going for around 800. Herefords averaged less but on an apples-to-apples basis seemed to be holding their price better. And they were mostly hachet-azzed.

I knew prices had softened but this was humbling. Wish I was just getting in now! :cry2: :cry2: :cry2:
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Brute 23 » Sun May 14, 2017 11:25 pm

:shock: :pop:
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Aaron » Sun May 14, 2017 11:42 pm

Just wait until next year. Looking forward to buying more open heifers at even cheaper prices.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun May 14, 2017 11:49 pm

After the market collapsed last summer and fall, the talking heads predicted continued price declines.
Of course the market went up the last 6 months. Now they are predicting price declines sooner or later.
Must be nice to always be right!

On of the more thoughtful pieces recently asked if you could turn a profit by purchasing a commercial cow for U$S 1300 to 1400?
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby farmerjan » Mon May 15, 2017 12:18 am

Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Stocker Steve » Mon May 15, 2017 1:08 am

Selling commodities is a tough game, but there is always someone who has figured out how to be a low cost producer.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Nesikep » Mon May 15, 2017 1:19 am

My dad spoke to our sale barn auctioneer, he was saying stronger prices here this fall.. I'm not pinning any hope on that though.
If I were to take a WAG at it, I'd say continued declines.. I'm quite certain less people will yell at me if I'm wrong!
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby boondocks » Mon May 15, 2017 1:36 am

Farmerjan, your background with the dairy side of things is always helpful to those of us (ahem, me) who don't always keep on top of dairy, and reminds me to always consider how much the current trend in dairy culls influences the beef side of things as well. Conversely, when beefer prices were going up, lots of dairy farmers around us decided to "get into" at least a little beef, so that helped our prices at that time.

In terms of the prices I listed above, these were some pretty good bloodlines too--nice registered stock, not junk. Which made it even more sobering. SO sobering, I wanted a drink afterwards :drink:

For those of us who just got in over the past few years and have been building our herds and just now getting really ready to start selling some small groups, the timing is especially painful. I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever. :(
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby kilroy60 » Mon May 15, 2017 4:20 am

We were kinda hoping that things would be picking up a little within the next few weeks. Have several steers to take to the barn soon and also have a few older cows which have been breed back to take also. I guess I'll take whatever I can get and just let them go. I also am fearing that this may be another dry summer. If so, we'll take another beating when we start to run low on hay and have to thin our herds.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby M-5 » Mon May 15, 2017 5:43 am

2014 made people think that every calf was a 1000.00 and good cows 2500.00 in reality it's no different than it is historically. Of course everyone wants higher prices but if your basing your break even on 14 your not gonna make it
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby artesianspringsfarm » Mon May 15, 2017 7:06 am

Boondocks,

I wish I would have known you were there! I was there, sitting in the front with the green trucker hat (buying the cheap 3 in 1's that had a pedigree I liked). I do agree that the sale was very soft but you cant go all doom and gloom from one sale. THe weekend before was the NYBPA sale along with the Trowbridge sale and the numbers there were quite strong. I think the problem with the sale Saturday was that there were a ton of consignors and no one came with their buying hats on. This is typically bull buying season around here and even Robert is having another sale this weekend for bulls. I don't need more head, but at those prices I bought enough to finish selling out my commercial head, getting younger, and will get about even money all said and done. Shoot me a PM when you are at the next NY sale. I won't make Robert's bull sale because I will be out of town. The WYE bull I bought with him was in the pasture just before the farm there.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Supa Dexta » Mon May 15, 2017 8:06 am

boondocks wrote:I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever. :(


That makes no sense.
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby ez14. » Mon May 15, 2017 8:12 am

farmerjan wrote:Those prices are in the range of what we have been seeing here for the past 6-9 months. Some nice conditioned black commercial cows with calves brought $1200-1600 2 weeks ago and I thought they were a little high. The breds were bringing $800-1000. I look for prices to be softer this fall and next year, even with the fires and late blizzard losses from earlier this spring. I honestly don't look for the prices to improve much before 2019 or 2020 and that will depend on the export situation. Milk prices are falling again and there will be more dairies selling out, because they have not been able to get caught up in the few months the prices rose, after the horrible drop into the $14.50/15.50 per hundred weight last year. Prices were up to about $19/$20 per hundred but didn't stay there for more than a couple months and they can't catch up with prices already dropping to the $17.50 range and forecast to fall more. One month they are crying surplus, then 2 months later they are saying they can't get enough milk and are having to truck it from here to timbuktoo... When these dairies start selling out there will be a surplus of cull beef. Feeder calf prices will fall again, then in 6 months they will be crying since they can't find enough calves to put on feed...Holstein bull calves here doubled in price in less than 2 weeks with the recent losses from the weather...from $100 to over $200 head last week. They were $50-60 just a month ago. There is no rhyme or reason to it anymore.
wish we were getting those milk prices! Around $15.00 here. $17.50 is almost breakeven that would make things a LITTLE easier
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Brute 23 » Mon May 15, 2017 9:17 am

Supa Dexta wrote:
boondocks wrote:I have a nice 6yo registered mama (has had 4 nice calves) that instead of re-breeding I may just burger. or dog food. Jackals, whatever. :(


That makes no sense.


I thought the same thing... seemed odd. :???:
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Re: Bloodbath at the sale

Postby Caustic Burno » Mon May 15, 2017 9:26 am

boondocks wrote:Jeez, went to the annual New York registered angus and hereford sale yesterday. Man there were some long faces.
Wasn't selling or buying, just trying to get an idea where prices are. Suffice it to say, I'm now gonna list a registered black angus (second-time mama; will re-calve in Sept. at exactly age 3,to a great registered AI bull) for a bunch less than what I was hoping for. Like, for only a few hundred bucks over what I was paying for 8 m.o. weanlings 3-5 years ago.

There were perfectly nice 3-in-1's (with beautiful calves at side) going for 2k. A couple or so nice older cows (say, 2011 vintage) short-bred going for around 800. Herefords averaged less but on an apples-to-apples basis seemed to be holding their price better. And they were mostly hachet-azzed.

I knew prices had softened but this was humbling. Wish I was just getting in now! :cry2: :cry2: :cry2:


You would have really had hurt feelings here with registered cattle.
Good bull will still bring decent money
just doing the quick math they are averaging 100 bucks a month up to 24 months. 3k is about the top I have seen lately at a bull sale.
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