Today's workshop

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Rafter S
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Rafter S » Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:16 pm

jallen wrote:Good thread, but I don't agree with calling this high artificial. It happened and the prices are real. Will they last, of course not. Trends are trends, prices will go up and down over time. Plenty influences can affect the market, none will last forever but it doesn't make them artificial.


I agree that it's not artificial. It's the result of increasing demand for a product combined with a decreasing supply. I also agree that it won't last forever. I don't know how far, how fast, our when prices will fall, but I'll be pleasantly astonished if they don't.

With that being said, I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby denvermartinfarms » Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:29 pm

Rafter S wrote:I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.


I couldn't agree more.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby highgrit » Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:36 pm

denvermartinfarms wrote:
Rafter S wrote:I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.


I couldn't agree more.

I've been selling all my heifers for that very reason. Get it while the getting is good.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Rafter S » Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:55 pm

highgrit wrote:
denvermartinfarms wrote:
Rafter S wrote:I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.


I couldn't agree more.

I've been selling all my heifers for that very reason. Get it while the getting is good.


I'm still saving heifers every year, just like I always have. I'm not saying it's the smart thing to do, in fact it probably isn't, but a great deal of the pleasure I get from the cattle business is in retaining and developing heifers. If I stop keeping heifers I might as well sell all my cattle and invest the money in mutual funds.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby bball » Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:59 pm

js1234 wrote:if managed properly, very good money can and is made at ALL points in the cycle.


Very true. It's simply a matter of knowing your operating costs, and then when to buy and when to sell...and what modifications you need to tweak to maximize efficiency of your operation for where we are in the cycle.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby bball » Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:02 pm

denvermartinfarms wrote:
Rafter S wrote:I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.


I couldn't agree more.


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Re: Today's workshop

Postby denvermartinfarms » Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:25 pm

bball wrote:
js1234 wrote:if managed properly, very good money can and is made at ALL points in the cycle.


Very true. It's simply a matter of knowing your operating costs, and then when to buy and when to sell...and what modifications you need to tweak to maximize efficiency of your operation for where we are in the cycle.

Your exactly right. But it's also that way now, even in a consistantly good market the same things don't always work. I buy plain bull calves, work them and sell them anywhere from 35 days to sevarel months later. The time I keep them changes all the time and the size I buy each time ranges from 3wts to 7wts depending on what works, I have ways that I figure what makes the most sense to buy and it's rarely the same for very long.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby greybeard » Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:41 pm

For all of my life, the large % of US farms have been small, so this "most farms/ranches run less than 100 head per farm" thing is nothing new. The difference today, are where they are located.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:06 pm

Rafter S wrote:
jallen wrote:Good thread, but I don't agree with calling this high artificial. It happened and the prices are real. Will they last, of course not. Trends are trends, prices will go up and down over time. Plenty influences can affect the market, none will last forever but it doesn't make them artificial.


I agree that it's not artificial. It's the result of increasing demand for a product combined with a decreasing supply. I also agree that it won't last forever. I don't know how far, how fast, our when prices will fall, but I'll be pleasantly astonished if they don't.

With that being said, I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.


Do you think if the drought had not happened and forced the sell off of 60% of the state herd prices would be where they are today.
No way would they be, this high is artificial and actually detrimental to us all.
We are forcing the consumer to look to alternative sources of protein.
This wasn't created by demand. It was created because we can not supply the consumer.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Rafter S » Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:18 pm

The drought forced the decreasing supply I referred to. Maybe we don't have the same understanding of "artificial". To me that conjures images of people manipulating the commodities market. I only meant that the current cattle market is a result of real world conditions.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby jallen » Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:30 pm

That drought happened, it took place in the real world and is being felt now. Artificial is flat out the wrong thing to call it. Maybe call it short lived or rare, but its not artificial.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:31 pm

greybeard wrote:For all of my life, the large % of US farms have been small, so this "most farms/ranches run less than 100 head per farm" thing is nothing new. The difference today, are where they are located.


True the change is in technology and freight to market along with regulation.
Makes it harder for the independent and small operator to compete.
Hard to sell a cow without a customer or you burn up the profit getting it to market.
Look at the feedlot, salebarn and slaughter plant closings over the last 30 years.
Regulation has forced a lot of this as compliance cost pushing the industry to minimize
feedlot and slaughter facilities. Every time one closes and pushes more to a central location
is another nail in the coffin.
You can deny it, ignore it, still happening.
I have seen the enemy and it is us.
The push is on to be BQA certified bet in ten years it is mandatory and you have to pay to be inspected and certified.
Same thing stated out with pesticide herbicide look where we are at today all in the name of food and worker
safety.
Last edited by Caustic Burno on Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:41 pm

jallen wrote:That drought happened, it took place in the real world and is being felt now. Artificial is flat out the wrong thing to call it. Maybe call it short lived or rare, but its not artificial.


OK lets call it rare as we never seen a drought of this proportion since the Dust Bowl.
Had it only been Texas in 2011 we wouldn't have these prices.
Had in been in Mo only would I sold off 70% of my herd no.
Expanding through most of the central US created these prices not the market.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:05 pm

GB I learned last week that you will be getting issued in the near future an Applicators license with a bar code
number on it assigned to just the applicator.
When you attend a CEU course upon completion you will swipe you license entering
you current CEU status into the system instantly.
There will be no more fudging CEU hours.
On top of that they are starting random inspection of your records this year.
Has your herd been certified TB free mine has. If you think that is free call me and I will let you in
on the secret it's not. Herd was quarantined until completion of a certified TB free herd you will comply.
I won the lottery I was selected as x percent of the state herd to be tested at random.
You can bet that is going to end up being mandatory as well.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby greybeard » Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:15 pm

Not any different than any other part of agriculture CB. People were making $$ on beef when they had to drive them hundreds of miles to stockyards/feedlot. Your produce comes from the Valley or Calif, or Florida--your eggs are probably not locally laid either, and yet them producers are still making $ at it even factoring in the shipping costs. Loggers around here complain that all the sawmills and plywood mills shut down and they have to haul logs so far, but they are still at it every day. The logger takes a hit, and the landowner takes a hit, but they're both still making $. It's the same with beef. Maybe we won't make as much as when every medium sized town had a salebarn and there were lots of feedlots all over Texas, but the truth is, we've just been lucky it was this good for this long. Cow folks hate 2 things.
They hate the way things are.
and:
They hate change.
When change comes, everybody wrings their hands and cries the sky is gonna fall, but it never has.
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