Caustic Burno wrote:denvermartinfarms wrote:I'm not sure I buy there opinion on the market. A steady 5 year decline seems unlikely. Where do they think prices will be at the end if that?
I here all the time people's big ideas about how 500lb calves are going to be 1.00$ again. It makes me wonder if that's the case when they think we will see 60 cent gas, a new dodge dually for 15k and nice houses for 30k.
After nearly 50 years the one thing I am sure of is this market will crash just as it has in the past and it will rise again.
Cattle price trends historically for the last 50 years of records have a ten year curve between highs and lows.
We have been riding an artificial high caused by a drought.
This is 100% correct. it's all supply and demand..the drought a few years back gave us a limited supply, and the demand ( especially in the Orient has been record highs because of their growing/thriving economy). But as with any commodity, it will reach a peak high that people will refuse to pay for and select other options..it's happening already in some places. The advantage the beef industry has is it's a one calf a year industry, not just a matter of hatching more eggs or breeding more litters of pigs to saturate the market, the supply isn't as easily manipulated as pork or chicken..or soy (yuck) for that matter. History has shown us things like trucks, homes and fuel never come down (for long). The law of luxury vs essential..just like wages never go up in proportion to basic living expenses.