Today's workshop

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Caustic Burno
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:17 am

Jabes0623 wrote:If people could accurately predict any market they wouldn't be talking about it they'd be playing it. You make a be nice of a lot more $ doing something than talking about it.

Now that's not to say cattle prices won't go down, they will. But someone acting as though they can actually predict what a market is going to look like 6 months from now is rather ridiculous, 5 years is just absurd. There's far too many unknowns.



Not really as 7 dollar a pound hamburger is not sustainable in this economy.
We are not the only protein source in 2000 we were almost having to pay the barn to
take the cattle. Wasn't uncommon for a 1200 lb cow to bring 300 dollars.
The market was showing signs of strengthening and prices were coming up then in 2006
ethanol hit driving corn prices up and feeders down.
Again this an artificial high due to drought in the mid west beef country . Now California millions of
dairy hamburger lbs have come off the market with the drought out west. Those people will restock
and those bull calves will enter the market driving prices down.
We are a slow moving industry providing 1 product a year if lucky from the cow.
The Chicken is producing a product a day to 21 days.
The Sow three litters a year both of these industries are riding a high as well filling our void right now.
To grow we have to remove product from the market not so with poultry or swine.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Jabes0623 » Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:18 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:
Jabes0623 wrote:If people could accurately predict any market they wouldn't be talking about it they'd be playing it. You make a be nice of a lot more $ doing something than talking about it.

Now that's not to say cattle prices won't go down, they will. But someone acting as though they can actually predict what a market is going to look like 6 months from now is rather ridiculous, 5 years is just absurd. There's far too many unknowns.



Not really as 7 dollar a pound hamburger is not sustainable in this economy.
We are not the only protein source in 2000 we were almost having to pay the barn to
take the cattle. Wasn't uncommon for a 1200 lb cow to bring 300 dollars.
The market was showing signs of strengthening and prices were coming up then in 2006
ethanol hit driving corn prices up and feeders down.
Again this an artificial high due to drought in the mid west beef country . Now California millions of
dairy hamburger lbs have come off the market with the drought out west. Those people will restock
and those bull calves will enter the market driving prices down.
We are a slow moving industry providing 1 product a year if lucky from the cow.
The Chicken is producing a product a day to 21 days.
The Sow three litters a year both of these industries are riding a high as well filling our void right now.
To grow we have to remove product from the market not so with poultry or swine.


You're taking far too narrow a view. The outside factors that influence the price of any commodity are so numerous one could never account for them all.

You mentioned the drought in CA. What if that drought moves East & the entire Midwest is also drought stricken for years? Do you know how much it's going to rain in Iowa in 2018?

What about the import/export of beef? If the USA stops importing beef from a few countries that will have a dramatic effect on the price of beef. The same is true if a couple of countries no longer import American beef. The reasons for either of those actions are many disease, war, trade embargo, another Obama EO etc etc.

There's no way you, I, or the person running the seminar the OP went to can possibly accurately predict the price of beef 1,2,3 or 10 years from now becasue they don't have the information needed to do so. No one does becasue you can't predict the future, unless your Ms Cleo.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:22 pm

I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Jabes0623 » Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:49 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.


My apologies, I had no idea facts & a well reasoned polite debate against your point of view would hurt your feelings.

Again, I'm not disputing that cattle prices will go down. There's no doubt that they will. However saying in 5 years they'll be down 33% is nothing more than a guess. They may be up 33%, we just don't know. And we won't until we get there.

Guess I'm an optimist.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby hillbilly beef man » Sat Apr 18, 2015 1:55 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:Denver I am convinced in your lifetime cattle operations as we know them will become extinct.
It has already started with womb to tomb cattle operations.
These will be ran like the chicken and pork industries owned by large corporations.
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/no-rancher ... t-ain-t-so


Cb, I listened to a speaker from UT that said the same thing. His message was that packers and feedlots are going to be very selective about the genetics that they buy in the future. As small producers we will have to decide whether we try to stay in the game through bettering the quality of our herds or quit. A little gloom and doom in his message, but quite a bit of truth as well.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:42 pm

hillbilly beef man wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:Denver I am convinced in your lifetime cattle operations as we know them will become extinct.
It has already started with womb to tomb cattle operations.
These will be ran like the chicken and pork industries owned by large corporations.
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/no-rancher ... t-ain-t-so


Cb, I listened to a speaker from UT that said the same thing. His message was that packers and feedlots are going to be very selective about the genetics that they buy in the future. As small producers we will have to decide whether we try to stay in the game through bettering the quality of our herds or quit. A little gloom and doom in his message, but quite a bit of truth as well.


The one thing I am sure since I started is the only constant has been change and run with the herd or
get eaten. Anyone can make a cow calf operation pay out today in this cycle.
I realized a long time ago when beef and forage workshops started being offered if I went to them and retained 5%
of the knowledge presented I was ahead of my local competition.
I haven't made the three day workshop they offer at College Station every year but I try missed last year
I plan on attending this year again. The best part of that workshop is you can sign up for sessions you think you need
most.
Twenty years ago I wouldn't even considered being BQA certified.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Jogeephus » Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:53 pm

I try not to predict the future prices. Only thing I can control is my cost of operation and paying high dollars for a replacement is not something I intend to do. What gives me reassurance that prices will stay strong is the $8 chickens I see at the grocery store. Seems in the past when beef went up chicken got cheap. Haven't seen this happen yet. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. The poultry business is pretty well a monopoly now so why would they cut their own throats? Also, feed should remain cheap with this new farm bill.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 3:02 pm

Jogeephus wrote:I try not to predict the future prices. Only thing I can control is my cost of operation and paying high dollars for a replacement is not something I intend to do. What gives me reassurance that prices will stay strong is the $8 chickens I see at the grocery store. Seems in the past when beef went up chicken got cheap. Haven't seen this happen yet. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. The poultry business is pretty well a monopoly now so why would they cut their own throats? Also, feed should remain cheap with this new farm bill.


The future prediction for prices in your area was the bleakest due to freight cost to the feed lot.
Does that mean you are going out of business of course not but your calves are going to take a bigger hit
the farther you get from the feedlot. Only way to make that up is with quality and pounds.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby bball » Sat Apr 18, 2015 4:22 pm

Jabes0623 wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.


My apologies, I had no idea facts & a well reasoned polite debate against your point of view would hurt your feelings.

Again, I'm not disputing that cattle prices will go down. There's no doubt that they will. However saying in 5 years they'll be down 33% is nothing more than a guess. They may be up 33%, we just don't know. And we won't until we get there.

Guess I'm an optimist.


I agree there are many variables, however, you better believe when the CME talks trends for ANY commodity and futures, they are well thought out..the 33% was an example (atleast that's how I took it). And if you don't fully believe the beef market has trends and cycles, I invite you to do some research over the last hundred years, there is a distinct ten year pattern to it..pay particular attention to the beginning of a decade, the middle and the end. You will see the pattern quickly..I agree you can't predict weather/disease etc, but you better believe the market has the inside track when it comes to info on imports/exports. So they can make projections with a certain degree of accuracy..when the prices correct(and they will correct) I don't want to be the guy who just bought a trailer load of $3000 heifers.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Gators Rule » Sat Apr 18, 2015 4:24 pm

Actually, the market is not rocket science, and is more predictable than one might think. The recent real estate crash of a few years ago, and then the subsequent stock market, and then the "bailouts" were quite predictable. The problem was too many people were trying to squeeze the last dollar out of the boom! They were literally caught with their pants down, and then many were too hard headed, and refused to cut their losses when the decline began. The cattle market will eventually do the same thing once pastures are restocked from the droughts....assuming another one isn't around the corner.

Of course I don't know when the fall will occur though. I will leave that up to the rocket scientists. :mrgreen: Greed and narrow mindedness will always be a shortfall for humanity.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Red Bull Breeder » Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:49 pm

One thing about them experts they make there living running there mouth instead of cattle. When they are wrong they just do more talking telling why it didn't work the way they said. More high grading cattle doesn't do any thing but drive the price of choice meat down.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:23 pm

Red Bull Breeder wrote:One thing about them experts they make there living running there mouth instead of cattle. When they are wrong they just do more talking telling why it didn't work the way they said. More high grading cattle doesn't do any thing but drive the price of choice meat down.


Ah two of the speakers that hold those Phd's own some real nice spreads.
Not many people running 200+ cows today.
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Caustic Burno » Sat Apr 18, 2015 7:37 pm

hillbilly beef man wrote:
Caustic Burno wrote:Denver I am convinced in your lifetime cattle operations as we know them will become extinct.
It has already started with womb to tomb cattle operations.
These will be ran like the chicken and pork industries owned by large corporations.
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/no-rancher ... t-ain-t-so


Cb, I listened to a speaker from UT that said the same thing. His message was that packers and feedlots are going to be very selective about the genetics that they buy in the future. As small producers we will have to decide whether we try to stay in the game through bettering the quality of our herds or quit. A little gloom and doom in his message, but quite a bit of truth as well.


I look at in my life the quality of cattle has improved beyond comparison.
They took a quantum leap in the 70's and have never slowed down.
The management of cattle has become a science. Just worming cattle today is so much less stressful on them and you.
Just look at hay production what used to take a crew to do can now be done by one man.
Going from square to round forage testing this list is almost endless.
The main thing that catches my eye is we have less than half the sale barns we had 15 years ago.
Places that ran cattle all my life are now empty pastures or planted in pine trees.
The next generation chose a different way to earn income
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby bball » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:01 pm

Gators Rule wrote:Actually, the market is not rocket science, and is more predictable than one might think. The recent real estate crash of a few years ago, and then the subsequent stock market, and then the "bailouts" were quite predictable. The problem was too many people were trying to squeeze the last dollar out of the boom! They were literally caught with their pants down, and then many were too hard headed, and refused to cut their losses when the decline began. The cattle market will eventually do the same thing once pastures are restocked from the droughts....assuming another one isn't around the corner.

Of course I don't know when the fall will occur though. I will leave that up to the rocket scientists. :mrgreen: Greed and narrow mindedness will always be a shortfall for humanity.


Good post. :tiphat:
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Re: Today's workshop

Postby Jogeephus » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:16 pm

Caustic Burno wrote:
Jogeephus wrote:I try not to predict the future prices. Only thing I can control is my cost of operation and paying high dollars for a replacement is not something I intend to do. What gives me reassurance that prices will stay strong is the $8 chickens I see at the grocery store. Seems in the past when beef went up chicken got cheap. Haven't seen this happen yet. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. The poultry business is pretty well a monopoly now so why would they cut their own throats? Also, feed should remain cheap with this new farm bill.


The future prediction for prices in your area was the bleakest due to freight cost to the feed lot.
Does that mean you are going out of business of course not but your calves are going to take a bigger hit
the farther you get from the feedlot. Only way to make that up is with quality and pounds.


Its always been that way though. We've always got the hind teet and raise cattle accordingly. Key is keeping your inputs down.
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