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The End of EPDs?
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<blockquote data-quote="simme" data-source="post: 1849910" data-attributes="member: 40418"><p>There are many ways to select cattle. Phenotype, cow family, pedigree, breeder reputation, epd's, ratios, etc. But there are perhaps some pitfalls in all of those.</p><p></p><p>In the example above, the attitude was "the more milk the better". I think that is where the trouble started. Let's think of a scenario where someone wants more growth in their herd. They go to a seedstock producer to buy a bull and tell the owner "I want to buy the highest weaning weight bull you raised this year". Sort of like "the more milk the better". Guy pays for that bull and turns him out with his cows. He selects his replacement heifers based on the same criteria - highest weaning weights. Since he wants more growth in the herd. Next bull is purchased based on the same criteria. Repeat that for 10 years. What are the results? Probably high growth cattle. But what about the fertility? Udders? Longevity? Structure? Disposition? Profitability? You get the idea. The thought that "the more milk the better" was perhaps more of a poor decision than using an epd. Long term single trait selection will cause a single trait to excel at the detriment of a balanced efficient cow herd.</p><p></p><p>Epd's are a good tool, but selecting for extreme epd's as your main criteria is perhaps similar to the charolais story above. Maybe the risk is more so in application of a tool than the tool itself. Whether selecting for phenotype or epd. May be easier to have a more moderate balanced trait herd than a herd that is tops in every trait. May be more profitable as well.</p><p></p><p>Yearling bulls are always going to be somewhat of a risk. They are unproven. A consistent cow herd (breed composition, size, growth, milk, etc) may make it easier to select a bull that works. When there is a bunch of variation in the cow herd, that probably makes selection of a bull more difficult.</p><p></p><p>Then epd accuracy is low for most animals. Given that, a bull in the top 30 percentile may not be superior to one in the top 70 percentile. But epd's in the bottom 10% for multiple generations back may be a flag.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="simme, post: 1849910, member: 40418"] There are many ways to select cattle. Phenotype, cow family, pedigree, breeder reputation, epd's, ratios, etc. But there are perhaps some pitfalls in all of those. In the example above, the attitude was "the more milk the better". I think that is where the trouble started. Let's think of a scenario where someone wants more growth in their herd. They go to a seedstock producer to buy a bull and tell the owner "I want to buy the highest weaning weight bull you raised this year". Sort of like "the more milk the better". Guy pays for that bull and turns him out with his cows. He selects his replacement heifers based on the same criteria - highest weaning weights. Since he wants more growth in the herd. Next bull is purchased based on the same criteria. Repeat that for 10 years. What are the results? Probably high growth cattle. But what about the fertility? Udders? Longevity? Structure? Disposition? Profitability? You get the idea. The thought that "the more milk the better" was perhaps more of a poor decision than using an epd. Long term single trait selection will cause a single trait to excel at the detriment of a balanced efficient cow herd. Epd's are a good tool, but selecting for extreme epd's as your main criteria is perhaps similar to the charolais story above. Maybe the risk is more so in application of a tool than the tool itself. Whether selecting for phenotype or epd. May be easier to have a more moderate balanced trait herd than a herd that is tops in every trait. May be more profitable as well. Yearling bulls are always going to be somewhat of a risk. They are unproven. A consistent cow herd (breed composition, size, growth, milk, etc) may make it easier to select a bull that works. When there is a bunch of variation in the cow herd, that probably makes selection of a bull more difficult. Then epd accuracy is low for most animals. Given that, a bull in the top 30 percentile may not be superior to one in the top 70 percentile. But epd's in the bottom 10% for multiple generations back may be a flag. [/QUOTE]
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