Cattle Prices Going Forward

Discuss upcoming sales and sale results.
Stocker Steve
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Stocker Steve » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:39 pm

Talking supply/demand heads projected flat to down cattle prices till 2020, when beef price cycle would start to turn up. Drought caused cow slaughter could speed this up a bit. Meanwhile back at the ranch - - grain prices have dropped a lot and feeder prices have strengthened a little. This was not projected. :shock: Who can you trust... A gambler would be selling cattle and buying grain at this point.

I think there are three obvious trade paths forward:
1) The be nice match ends quickly and we have a group hug for fair trade. Not likely.
2) The government writes a check to grain farmers. Lots of precedence here.
3) We loose the Chinese market just like we lost the Russian market back in the 70's. They don't have to worry about fall elections in China. It may be time to start selling that over priced land!
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Lucky » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:36 pm

Back to the original question my pee brain has to ask “ Do other countries have a cattle industry like the USA?” I don’t know the answer but if not other countries will still want our beef. Mexico and Brazil could have a huge beef industry if they could get it together but I don’t see that happening at least not quality wise. The government will never let farmers, ranchers, or dairymen make what they should, they can’t afford to. Prices will stay steady with ups and downs and every 5 or so years cattlemen will be allowed to make some good money? There is no way to make a profit worthwhile in this biz with the income that comes strictly from selling commercial calves for beef production. Unless maybe you inherited a big operation or get lucky enough to lock in a 30 yr lease on 10,000 acres.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby sstterry » Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:40 pm

Lucky wrote:Back to the original question my pee brain has to ask “ Do other countries have a cattle industry like the USA?” I don’t know the answer but if not other countries will still want our beef. Mexico and Brazil could have a huge beef industry if they could get it together but I don’t see that happening at least not quality wise. The government will never let farmers, ranchers, or dairymen make what they should, they can’t afford to. Prices will stay steady with ups and downs and every 5 or so years cattlemen will be allowed to make some good money? There is no way to make a profit worthwhile in this biz with the income that comes strictly from selling commercial calves for beef production. Unless maybe you inherited a big operation or get lucky enough to lock in a 30 yr lease on 10,000 acres.

Lucky,
This is part of my reason for asking the question. Another thread on this Board deals with Argentinian Beef. Why the Heck are we buying beef from Argentina?
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Lucky » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:10 pm

I figure fast food places, govt. commodities, and govt. back scratching is the bulk of agentina beef buying. I watched a show a couple years ago and some of these countries had huge ranches but the sorriest cattle you’ve ever seen and no vaccination programs. We’ve got countrys that won’t buy beef from us because of a mad cow scare ( bunch of BS) but we buy beef from countries that could care less about health or quality. It’s the same with the Catfish industry. I’m not smart enough to figure it out so I voted for a man that seems to be on our side. Guess time will tell. I wish I could post a link to a youtube video I watched that tslked about the true cost of ranching. I watched it thinking “whatever” but he pretty well nailed it. Oh yea funny how one of the folks that gets upset about CG8 using the term “Hobby Rancher” fessed up that most are. I’m gonna say the Seedstock and Show Cattle industry isn’t a blimp on the radar when it comes to feeder cattle. I’ve been wrong before though.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby ddd75 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:48 am

Lucky wrote:Back to the original question my pee brain has to ask “ Do other countries have a cattle industry like the USA?” I don’t know the answer but if not other countries will still want our beef. Mexico and Brazil could have a huge beef industry if they could get it together but I don’t see that happening at least not quality wise. The government will never let farmers, ranchers, or dairymen make what they should, they can’t afford to. Prices will stay steady with ups and downs and every 5 or so years cattlemen will be allowed to make some good money? There is no way to make a profit worthwhile in this biz with the income that comes strictly from selling commercial calves for beef production. Unless maybe you inherited a big operation or get lucky enough to lock in a 30 yr lease on 10,000 acres.


how much money have you put in your operation and how much are you making?
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby bball » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:20 am

Lucky wrote:I figure fast food places, govt. commodities, and govt. back scratching is the bulk of agentina beef buying. I watched a show a couple years ago and some of these countries had huge ranches but the sorriest cattle you’ve ever seen and no vaccination programs. We’ve got countrys that won’t buy beef from us because of a mad cow scare ( bunch of BS) but we buy beef from countries that could care less about health or quality. It’s the same with the Catfish industry. I’m not smart enough to figure it out so I voted for a man that seems to be on our side. Guess time will tell. I wish I could post a link to a youtube video I watched that tslked about the true cost of ranching. I watched it thinking “whatever” but he pretty well nailed it. Oh yea funny how one of the folks that gets upset about CG8 using the term “Hobby Rancher” fessed up that most are. I’m gonna say the Seedstock and Show Cattle industry isn’t a blimp on the radar when it comes to feeder cattle. I’ve been wrong before though.


I sure would like to see that YouTube video. Do you recall the title by chance?
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:01 am

sstterry wrote:Another thread on this Board deals with Argentinian Beef. Why the Heck are we buying beef from Argentina?


"Grassfed" !!!
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Lucky » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:04 am

ddd75 wrote:
Lucky wrote:Back to the original question my pee brain has to ask “ Do other countries have a cattle industry like the USA?” I don’t know the answer but if not other countries will still want our beef. Mexico and Brazil could have a huge beef industry if they could get it together but I don’t see that happening at least not quality wise. The government will never let farmers, ranchers, or dairymen make what they should, they can’t afford to. Prices will stay steady with ups and downs and every 5 or so years cattlemen will be allowed to make some good money? There is no way to make a profit worthwhile in this biz with the income that comes strictly from selling commercial calves for beef production. Unless maybe you inherited a big operation or get lucky enough to lock in a 30 yr lease on 10,000 acres.


how much money have you put in your operation and how much are you making?


I’m definitely not a BTO but wouldn’t exactly say I’m a hobby farmer either. When you consider the fact that I’ve bought all the land I run on, bought all the equipment, built several miles of fence, had pools dug, and bought all the cattle it comes up to allot of money. When I figure profit per cow I figure in leasing the land from myself because cows won’t pay for it and I just figure some folks buy bass boats and campers I buy tractors and equipment again cows won’t pay for it. It’s definitely all a long term investment. I try to profit $600 a calf but that’s hard to do. If I do make $600 a calf that just means I have a little improvement money for next year, It’s not money to live on. I try not to think about all that stuff, you just gotta like what you do I guess.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Lucky » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:05 am

bball wrote:
Lucky wrote:I figure fast food places, govt. commodities, and govt. back scratching is the bulk of agentina beef buying. I watched a show a couple years ago and some of these countries had huge ranches but the sorriest cattle you’ve ever seen and no vaccination programs. We’ve got countrys that won’t buy beef from us because of a mad cow scare ( bunch of BS) but we buy beef from countries that could care less about health or quality. It’s the same with the Catfish industry. I’m not smart enough to figure it out so I voted for a man that seems to be on our side. Guess time will tell. I wish I could post a link to a youtube video I watched that tslked about the true cost of ranching. I watched it thinking “whatever” but he pretty well nailed it. Oh yea funny how one of the folks that gets upset about CG8 using the term “Hobby Rancher” fessed up that most are. I’m gonna say the Seedstock and Show Cattle industry isn’t a blimp on the radar when it comes to feeder cattle. I’ve been wrong before though.


I sure would like to see that YouTube video. Do you recall the title by chance?


https://youtu.be/3Z3kXevsLfs
Maybe that will work.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Stocker Steve » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:16 am

[quote="sstterry"]Another thread on this Board deals with Argentinian Beef. Why the Heck are we buying beef from Argentina?[/quote

Argentina has a long history of exporting beef, mostly to Europe. They had a lot of prairie land (that is often compared to eastern Oklahoma) and a lot of people that need a job. I have seen open trucks driving to market with shiny haltered BA steers tied in the back. Looked like they were going to a fair.

In recent years they have plowed up pasture to grow soybeans, and alot of the soil is now blowing or washing away. The government encourages this becasue soy (and wine) are some of the few things they can export. The goverment artificially keeps the price of beef low to buy votes. Kind of like free bread in Rome...

I have not idea what their current land and labor costs are, but I know their currency is next to worthless, and they are a much lower cost producer than the US. No COOL required.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Bright Raven » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:38 am

Lucky wrote: I wish I could post a link to a youtube video I watched that tslked about the true cost of ranching. I watched it thinking “whatever” but he pretty well nailed it. Oh yea funny how one of the folks that gets upset about CG8 using the term “Hobby Rancher” fessed up that most are. I’m gonna say the Seedstock and Show Cattle industry isn’t a blimp on the radar when it comes to feeder cattle.


I consider a "hobby" farm to be one with less than 50 brood cows and subsidized by outside income. 90 % of the producers in Kentucky fit that. Bigfoot has made that point many times. I think one of his posts was that "the average producer in Kentucky who says they are making money does not do a good job keeping track of their expenses".

Regarding show stock. A lot of money is spent in that part of the industry. It is an important component of the whole.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby Brute 23 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:41 am

Some of that beef coming from Argentina is owned by American operators they just have ranches down there. Look up the King Ranch's land holdings. I know of several also. So if you wonder why the US is buying beef from Argentina... follow the money trail. ;-)
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby True Grit Farms » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:41 am

Brute 23 wrote:Some of that beef coming from Argentina is owned by American operators they just have ranches down there. Look up the King Ranch's land holdings. I know of several also. So if you wonder why the US is buying beef from Argentina... follow the money trail. ;-)

Brazil has hoof and mouth disease for sure, and there's no telling what else. JBS is crooked and the pride and joy of Brazil beef.
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby snoopdog » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:01 pm

If I'm not mistaken, the majority of beef in this country is produced by farmers with less than 30 mommas . That is a lot of small guys , who get hurt the worst . With fuel prices rising , and the other factors associated , you can look forward to another recession , and possible economic collapse . In the depression , a good laying hen was worth more than a beef . Smoot/Hawley and isolationist / protectionist policy made matters worse, not better .
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Re: Cattle Prices Going Forward

Postby cmay » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:16 pm

We need the cheap, lean Argentine beef to mix with the extra fat we produce to make hamburger.
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