China.....

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Bright Raven
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Re: China.....

Postby Bright Raven » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:52 pm

shaz wrote:China must be convinced that they can get enough soybeans from Brazil, otherwise they just shot their foot off.


beans were down 1.4 billion about noon.
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Re: China.....

Postby Bestoutwest » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:54 pm

shaz wrote:China must be convinced that they can get enough soybeans from Brazil, otherwise they just shot their foot off.


I had heard about this on NPR today, but I didn't catch a lot. What I caught was that the US and China will be big losers and Brazil a big winner because it's got the space to grow whatever crop the world wants.
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Re: China.....

Postby Bestoutwest » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:54 pm

Bright Raven wrote:
shaz wrote:China must be convinced that they can get enough soybeans from Brazil, otherwise they just shot their foot off.


beans were down 1.4 billion about noon.


Don't worry, they'll come back. They are, after all, the magical fruit....
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Re: China.....

Postby sim.-ang.king » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:56 pm

Bestoutwest wrote:
Bright Raven wrote:
shaz wrote:China must be convinced that they can get enough soybeans from Brazil, otherwise they just shot their foot off.


beans were down 1.4 billion about noon.


Don't worry, they'll come back. They are, after all, the magical fruit....

They weren't down for long, and don't really know about the 1.4 billion.
They seem to be following the year to year trend just like always.
The current price lower than February, but higher than December, and January, just like clock work.
Expect another rally in June-July, with a neutral trend in august-September.
China isn't the only Soy market, US crushers are the largest consumer of US soy, with SBM going to Canada, Mexico, and Euro.
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Re: China.....

Postby ddd75 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:47 am

they won't get the quality in brazil like the US, and thats what they're after.
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Re: China.....

Postby Brute 23 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:33 am

I think one thing people are underestimating in this thread is the producers need the buyers just as much... if not more. Although the US may need some things from other countries... we also consume record amounts of products. Basically, we have a lot of buying power to dictate what we want to purchase.

I do believe Americans can afford to buy quality products. The problem is I believe most Americans value owning 10 cheap products over 5 quality products.

Higher wages come from people being willing to pay more for products. With out one you can't have the other.
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Re: China.....

Postby TexasBred » Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:11 am

shaz wrote:China must be convinced that they can get enough soybeans from Brazil, otherwise they just shot their foot off.

They can and they will if necessary.
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Re: China.....

Postby HDRider » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:59 am

We are playing Russian roulette with China. A global game of consequences.

The thing I will say, I believe we have let China play fast and loose for way too long, and Mr. T is pushing back.
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Re: China.....

Postby haase » Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:34 am

Imo two decades of bad trade deals and a loss of two million Jobs to China is enough, sad thing is it took this long to realize it.
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Re: China.....

Postby hurleyjd » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:19 pm

Ethanol is another item China has on their tariff list. Could hurt the corn farmers. Also Grassley and Ernst have their panties in a wad because the EPA is thinking of lowering the mandate for ethanol in the near future. I wonder if we will get a break on feed and maybe the cost of range cubes will come down now they are approaching $9.00 for fifty pounds.
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Re: China.....

Postby HDRider » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:30 pm

In June 1930 Smoot-Hawley doubled average import duties on about two thousand manufactures and agricultural products. Other nations retaliated and world trade plummeted. American exports went from about $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.7 billion in 1933.

The loss of overseas markets for agricultural goods helped to turn much of the American heartland into a dust bowl.

Many farmers defaulted on their loans, which, in turn, was a factor in leading to a banking panic.

In the early 1930s, U.S. exports totaled about 7 percent of GDP; in 2016, U.S. exports amounted to 12 percent of GDP.
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Re: China.....

Postby greybeard » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:05 pm

HDRider wrote:In June 1930 Smoot-Hawley doubled average import duties on about two thousand manufactures and agricultural products. Other nations retaliated and world trade plummeted. American exports went from about $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.7 billion in 1933.

The loss of overseas markets for agricultural goods helped to turn much of the American heartland into a dust bowl.

Many farmers defaulted on their loans, which, in turn, was a factor in leading to a banking panic.

In the early 1930s, U.S. exports totaled about 7 percent of GDP; in 2016, U.S. exports amounted to 12 percent of GDP.


What was the equivalent % of our GDP that was imported that same 'early 1930s period?
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Re: China.....

Postby TexasBred » Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:01 pm

ddd75 wrote:they won't get the quality in brazil like the US, and thats what they're after.

Brazilian soybean meal will typically contain at least 3% higher crude protein than American bean meal and Brazil was already hoping to increase their acreage in soybeans. This might be just what they are waiting on.
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Re: China.....

Postby AdamsCreek » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:23 pm

hurleyjd wrote:Ethanol is another item China has on their tariff list. Could hurt the corn farmers. Also Grassley and Ernst have their panties in a wad because the EPA is thinking of lowering the mandate for ethanol in the near future. I wonder if we will get a break on feed and maybe the cost of range cubes will come down now they are approaching $9.00 for fifty pounds.

I don’t know anything about the price of commodities and what makes it go up and down but I do know that I filled my feed wagon yesterday and paid $1.10 more per hundred than I did this time last year.
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Re: China.....

Postby greybeard » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:24 pm

TexasBred wrote:
ddd75 wrote:they won't get the quality in brazil like the US, and thats what they're after.

Brazilian soybean meal will typically contain at least 3% higher crude protein than American bean meal .

Why is that TB? Better soil?
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